Forecasting of Childhood Pneumonia in Semarang City

DOI

10.2991/icracos-19.2020.52How to use a DOI?

Keywords

ARIMA, Forecasting, Time Series, Toddler Pneumonia

Abstract

The number of cases of under-five pneumonia in Semarang City recorded at Semarang City Health Office in 2018 was 6,477 cases, a decrease compared to 2017 at 9,586 cases. This study used under-five pneumonia cases in Semarang City as one of the variables to determine the results of ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) time series forecasting. This study aimed to determine the estimation result for number of under-five pneumonia patients in Semarang City from 2019-2021 using the ARIMA method. This study was a non-reactive study (secondary data). Study population were all children under five years old with pneumonia Semarang City during 2012-2018. This study used secondary data, so the sample was all members of the population. Toddler pneumonia data during 2019-2021 was forecasted using ARIMA method that was applied to univariate data with time series identification models. The results of this study indicated that the number of under-five pneumonia patients in Semarang city can be estimated using the ARIMA model (2.0.2) with a MAPE error rate of 25%, meaning that the forecasting ability was fair, feasible, and adequate for practical use. The result of 2019 forecast for toddlers with pneumonia was 4,479 patients, 4,477 patients for 2020, and 4,477 cases in 2021. Conclusion, the ARIMA model (2.0.2) could be used to forecast the number of toddler pneumonia patients in Semarang city. Keywords: ARIMA, Forecasting, Time Series, Toddler Pneumonia

Copyright

© 2020, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Widya Cahyati
AU  - Merlinda Sari
PY  - 2020/01
DA  - 2020/01
TI  - Forecasting of Childhood Pneumonia in Semarang City
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference on Research and Academic Community Services (ICRACOS 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 244
EP  - 249
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icracos-19.2020.52
DO  - 10.2991/icracos-19.2020.52
ID  - Cahyati2020/01
ER  -