Future Flood Forecasting in Bukit Merah Using HEC-HMS Software

DOI

10.2991/aer.k.201229.026How to use a DOI?

Keywords

HEC-HMS, flood forecasting, climate change, land use changes

Abstract

Flood has occurred many times in Malaysia and it has greatly affected the residents that live in flood risk area such as Bukit Merah. Due to the climate change and land use changes issues, the flood and drought events seem to be occurred more frequently in larger scale in Bukit Merah. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to develop the hydrologic model for Bukit Merah and to forecast the flood magnitude for next twenty years by considering the factor of climate change and land use changes via HEC-HMS. After developing the hydrologic model of Bukit Merah, the model has been calibrated and validated with the coefficient of determination, R2 = 0.9066 and 0.9575 respectively. The results showed that the simulated stream flow was closely fit to the observed streamflow, therefore it was reliable. Then, the model was used to simulate the streamflow for next twenty years by using predicted future rainfall data obtained from NAHRIM. The simulated peak discharge to the Bukit Merah Reservoir for next twenty years was 113.7 m3/s. Then, the scenarios of excess rainfall and extremely lack of rainfall were simulated. In extremely lack of rainfall scenario, the peak discharge to the Bukit Merah Reservoir decreased by 76.87 % while for the excess rainfall scenario, the peak discharge has increased 379 %. After that, the Curve Number (CN) of the basin has been increased by 20% and it was assumed to have 70% of impervious area according to the future development in Perak. Then, the model was simulated but the peak discharge to Bukit Merah Reservoir remain unchanged, recorded as 113.7 m3/s. Hence, this paper outlined that climate change has the biggest impact on the magnitude of streamflow but the land use changes do not give much effects to the magnitude of streamflow in Bukit Merah.

Copyright

© 2020, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Nuramidah Hamidon
AU  - Chin Jun Hong
AU  - Mariah Awang
AU  - Mohammad Ashraf Abdul Rahman
AU  - Faridahanim Ahmad
AU  - Kamaruzaman Musa
AU  - Fatimah Mohamed Yusof
AU  - Suraya Hani Adnan
AU  - Mohd Syafiq Syazwan Mustafa
PY  - 2020
DA  - 2020/12/30
TI  - Future Flood Forecasting in Bukit Merah Using HEC-HMS Software
BT  - Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Separation Technology 2020 (ICoST 2020)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 183
EP  - 189
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aer.k.201229.026
DO  - 10.2991/aer.k.201229.026
ID  - Hamidon2020
ER  -