Measure and Manage the Dynamic risk of Commodity Futures Market Based on CAViaR
Zeng-yu Fu, Hu-wei Wen
Available Online January 2017.
- https://doi.org/10.2991/iconfem-16.2016.7How to use a DOI?
- Commodity Futures; CAViaR model; the family of GARCH model; Backtest.
- Under the background of OBOR strategic, commodities futures market of China meet new opportunity. It benefits the internationalization of China's futures market and enhances the commodity pricing power that we can management the market risk. By taking the typical industrial and agricultural commodities futures of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in consider, this paper adopts CAViaR model to measure the dynamic risk. Then three likelihood ratio tests and one dynamic quantile test are used to compare the predictive performance and applicability in different quantiles of different models. The empirical results show that the CAViaR model is superior to the traditional GARCH model. Yields of commodity futures presented typical "fat tail" and autocorrelation. The GARCH models, which ignore the "fat tail" and autocorrelation, may be inefficient to measure risk of commodity futures Market. The CAViaR model may be the most suitable risk management tools for commodity futures risk management.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license.
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Zeng-yu Fu AU - Hu-wei Wen PY - 2017/01 DA - 2017/01 TI - Measure and Manage the Dynamic risk of Commodity Futures Market Based on CAViaR BT - 2016 International Conference on Engineering Management (Iconf-EM 2016) PB - Atlantis Press SN - 2352-5428 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/iconfem-16.2016.7 DO - https://doi.org/10.2991/iconfem-16.2016.7 ID - Fu2017/01 ER -