Research for Modeling the Evolutionary Law of Mass Incidents on System Dynamics

DOI

10.2991/icmesd-17.2017.83How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Mass incidents, SIR model, Related subjects, Key factors, System dynamics.

Abstract

This paper aims to establish an improved model of evolutionary law of mass incidents. Based on the SIR model, we propose mass incidents' three related subjects: public, government and third-party departments, and quantitatively analyze the key factors influencing these related subjects. Then, we build the mass incident model by the method of system dynamics. The evolution process of mass incidents will be captured by the simulation. The simulation is done by using AnyLogic software, and the results show that the model is available and reflect the evolutionary law of mass incidents. It is useful to provide theoretical support for the emergency management and help government departments effectively prepare for and respond to mass incidents.

Copyright

© 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Ding-Hua Zhang
AU  - Wei-Jun Li
PY  - 2017/05
DA  - 2017/05
TI  - Research for Modeling the Evolutionary Law of Mass Incidents on System Dynamics
BT  - Proceedings of the 3rd Annual International Conference on Management, Economics and Social Development (ICMESD 17)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 452
EP  - 458
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icmesd-17.2017.83
DO  - 10.2991/icmesd-17.2017.83
ID  - Zhang2017/05
ER  -