Model Sea Levels Prediction With ARIMA for Coastal Area in Semarang

DOI

10.2991/aer.k.211129.001How to use a DOI?

Keywords

ARIMA; prediction; time series; coastal flood; sea levels

Abstract

Coastal flood is one of the most frequent disasters in coastal cities in Indonesia. Semarang the largest city in Central Java is one of the cities most affected by rising sea levels. The low land surface along the coast and decreasing every year accompanied by rising sea levels makes the city prone to tidal flooding. To predict the sea level rise, which is the main cause, this study offers data analysis using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. The ARIMA model is divided into 3 elements, namely: Auto-Regressive (AR) model, the Moving Average (MA), and the Integrated (I) model. These three elements can be modified to form a new model in general form, it will be ARIMA (p, d, q) and this study found that model (1,1,1) is more suitable. The results of this study produce predictions that are quite accurate than can provide accurate data and information for stakeholders to prepare for disaster management and mitigation in affected areas. Besides, it can be used as a reference for making prevention for the short and medium-term in areas prone to coastal flooding.

Copyright

© 2021 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press International B.V.

Open Access

This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - A. Musbikhin
AU  - Eko Sediyono
AU  - Catur Edi Widodo
PY  - 2021
DA  - 2021/11/30
TI  - Model Sea Levels Prediction With ARIMA for Coastal Area in Semarang
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference on Innovation in Science and Technology (ICIST 2020)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 1
EP  - 5
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aer.k.211129.001
DO  - 10.2991/aer.k.211129.001
ID  - Musbikhin2021
ER  -