Proceedings of the 2021 3rd International Conference on Economic Management and Cultural Industry (ICEMCI 2021)

Forecast on Oil Futures Volatility Based on HAR-RV Model and HAR-RV-SW Model

Authors
Nuo Chen1, *, , Xinyi Chen2,
1Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, The University of Manchester, Manchester, M139PL, The United Kingdom
2Department of International Economics and Trade, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing, 100029, China

These authors contribute equally.

Corresponding Author
Nuo Chen
Available Online 15 December 2021.
DOI
10.2991/assehr.k.211209.057How to use a DOI?
Keywords
crude oil futures; HAR-RV model; HAR-RV-SW model; parameter estimation; volatility forecasting
Abstract

Crude oil is an important chemical raw material and energy source, and its price is very crucial to the cost of industrial development. Therefore, the forecast of crude oil prices is also very meaningful. This paper studies the correlation between the actual daily, weekly, and monthly volatility and the forecast volatility by establishing a HAR-RV model. Through the establishment of this model, we study the influence of the weekday effect on the forecast of volatility and find that the forecast of daily volatility is positively correlated with weekly volatility, while daily, weekly and monthly volatilities have a positive correlation with the forecast of weekly volatility. Besides, we have also established the HAR-RV-SW model and obtained the forecast of the volatility of daily, weekly, and monthly has a day-to-the-week effect. This can help us predict crude oil futures prices through historical data.

Copyright
© 2021 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press International B.V.
Open Access
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license.

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Volume Title
Proceedings of the 2021 3rd International Conference on Economic Management and Cultural Industry (ICEMCI 2021)
Series
Advances in Economics, Business and Management Research
Publication Date
15 December 2021
ISBN
978-94-6239-483-4
ISSN
2352-5428
DOI
10.2991/assehr.k.211209.057How to use a DOI?
Copyright
© 2021 The Authors. Published by Atlantis Press International B.V.
Open Access
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC license.

Cite this article

TY  - CONF
AU  - Nuo Chen
AU  - Xinyi Chen
PY  - 2021
DA  - 2021/12/15
TI  - Forecast on Oil Futures Volatility Based on HAR-RV Model and HAR-RV-SW Model
BT  - Proceedings of the 2021 3rd International Conference on Economic Management and Cultural Industry (ICEMCI 2021)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 337
EP  - 343
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.211209.057
DO  - 10.2991/assehr.k.211209.057
ID  - Chen2021
ER  -