Estimation of Default Scale of 2020 Credit Bonds Under the Influence of Epidemic

DOI

10.2991/aebmr.k.201128.101How to use a DOI?

Keywords

2019-nCov, credit bonds, default, Estimation

Abstract

The continuous impact of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) may increase the pressure of credit debt risk prevention and control in 2020.First, the epidemic will weaken the ability of enterprises to make profits and raise funds through such channels as impacting consumption, affecting production, reducing economic growth expectations and market risk contagion. Second, in 2020, it is expected that the overall maturity repayment scale of credit bonds will increase unabated, and the pressure on maturity repayment would have been great. Road transport, catering and tourism, food and beverage, culture and media and other industries are greatly affected by the epidemic in the short term. In recent years, the scale of bond default in the food and beverage industry has continued to rise, and this year may become a major disaster area for bond default. In recent years, there are few bond defaults in Hubei Province, the maturity scale of the existing credit bonds is stable in 2020, and the default risk is expected to be controllable. However, we still need to be alert to the black swan impact caused by the uncertain prospect of epidemic prevention and control. With the continuous development of macro policies in recent years, market risks have been effectively mitigated and liquidity has been greatly enhanced. In the next step, it is necessary to follow up and study the business status and cash flow of the enterprises affected by the epidemic, identify the short-term problems caused by the force majeure of the epidemic and the business problems of the enterprises themselves, so as to provide a reference for the rescue. Consider to promote zero coupons, preferred stock, high-yield debt and other products that are conducive to balancing the term structure of corporate cash flow.

Copyright

© 2020, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Guanglu Li
AU  - Susheng Wang
PY  - 2020
DA  - 2020/11/30
TI  - Estimation of Default Scale of 2020 Credit Bonds Under the Influence of Epidemic
BT  - Proceedings of the 2020 2nd International Conference on Economic Management and Cultural Industry (ICEMCI 2020)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 524
EP  - 527
SN  - 2352-5428
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.201128.101
DO  - 10.2991/aebmr.k.201128.101
ID  - Li2020
ER  -