Crude oil Price Fluctuations to Kazakhstan Economic Impact Analysis

DOI

10.2991/iceep-16.2016.7How to use a DOI?

Keywords

oil price fluctuation;Economic growth;VAR model;Impulse response;Granger reason

Abstract

using the VAR model, this paper builds the crude oil price fluctuation and economic growth of kazakhstan, monetary policy, price level, the unemployment rate and other variables and the static relationship between oil price fluctuations on the influence law of kazakhstan's important economic variables such as economic growth, Granger causality analysis shows that the international oil price fluctuations is kazakhstan's economic growth rate, money supply, price levels, unemployment, etc. The Granger cause of the change of the economic indicators.Through the VAR model and impulse response analysis, the impact of oil price fluctuation on kazakhstan national economy mainly include: gross domestic product (GDP) will not change, but can make the economic growth is slowing, through the pull of aggregate supply and cost reduce two ways to make price level rise, increase long-term unemployment, and the effects of monetary policy effectiveness.Overall, although the international price of crude oil and kazakhstan, the relationship between economic variables are complex, but through the automatic adjustment and the government's macroeconomic regulation and control of the market, oil prices, money supply, price level, Economic growth and unemployment, which is composed of five relevant economic variables such as kazakhstan economic system is relatively stable in the long run.

Copyright

© 2016, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Download article (PDF)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Cuiping Li
PY  - 2016/11
DA  - 2016/11
TI  - Crude oil Price Fluctuations to Kazakhstan Economic Impact Analysis
BT  - Proceedings of the 2016 5th International Conference on Energy and Environmental Protection (ICEEP 2016)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 41
EP  - 44
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/iceep-16.2016.7
DO  - 10.2991/iceep-16.2016.7
ID  - Li2016/11
ER  -