Analysis of the Impact of Sino-US Trade Friction on China’s Major Industries Based on Dynamic GTAP Model
- DOI
- 10.2991/assehr.k.200401.043How to use a DOI?
- Keywords
- dynamic GTAP model, Sino-US trade friction, tariff barriers, economic structure
- Abstract
This paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China’s economy and major industries by dynamic GTAP model. The research shows that although the US can reduce trade deficit in short-term under the Sino-US trade friction escalation scenario. The reduction is achieved by a faster decline in imports than that in exports, while its consumption, investment, employment, and economic growth will be damaged. This is contrary to Trump’s intention to increase trade surpluses through trade protection measures to drive economic growth and employment. For China, there is little impact on China’s traditional high-energy-consuming industries in Sino-US trade friction escalation scenario, which is driven by China’s supply-side structural reform. The traditional industry has achieved remarkable effect in capacity reduction, and the growth rate of exports has declined. China is in a critical period of transition between old and new industry. The rapid development of high-tech industries has become a new power for economy growth and an important starting point for China to achieve high-quality development. The escalation of trade friction will have a greater negative impact on the development of high-tech industry. The trade friction mitigation scenario can achieve a win-win situation between China and the US, providing a steady environment for the development of China’s high-tech industry and achieving high-quality development.
- Copyright
- © 2020, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Lili Zhang AU - Chuncheng Zhang AU - Wei Tang AU - Shanshan Wu PY - 2020 DA - 2020/04/06 TI - Analysis of the Impact of Sino-US Trade Friction on China’s Major Industries Based on Dynamic GTAP Model BT - Proceedings of the International Conference on Education, Economics and Information Management (ICEEIM 2019) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 186 EP - 192 SN - 2352-5398 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.200401.043 DO - 10.2991/assehr.k.200401.043 ID - Zhang2020 ER -