Analysis of the Impact of Sino-US Trade Friction on China’s Major Industries Based on Dynamic GTAP Model

DOI

10.2991/assehr.k.200401.043How to use a DOI?

Keywords

dynamic GTAP model, Sino-US trade friction, tariff barriers, economic structure

Abstract

This paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of Sino-US trade friction on China’s economy and major industries by dynamic GTAP model. The research shows that although the US can reduce trade deficit in short-term under the Sino-US trade friction escalation scenario. The reduction is achieved by a faster decline in imports than that in exports, while its consumption, investment, employment, and economic growth will be damaged. This is contrary to Trump’s intention to increase trade surpluses through trade protection measures to drive economic growth and employment. For China, there is little impact on China’s traditional high-energy-consuming industries in Sino-US trade friction escalation scenario, which is driven by China’s supply-side structural reform. The traditional industry has achieved remarkable effect in capacity reduction, and the growth rate of exports has declined. China is in a critical period of transition between old and new industry. The rapid development of high-tech industries has become a new power for economy growth and an important starting point for China to achieve high-quality development. The escalation of trade friction will have a greater negative impact on the development of high-tech industry. The trade friction mitigation scenario can achieve a win-win situation between China and the US, providing a steady environment for the development of China’s high-tech industry and achieving high-quality development.

Copyright

© 2020, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Lili Zhang
AU  - Chuncheng Zhang
AU  - Wei Tang
AU  - Shanshan Wu
PY  - 2020
DA  - 2020/04/06
TI  - Analysis of the Impact of Sino-US Trade Friction on China’s Major Industries Based on Dynamic GTAP Model
BT  - Proceedings of the International Conference on Education, Economics and Information Management (ICEEIM 2019)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 186
EP  - 192
SN  - 2352-5398
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.200401.043
DO  - 10.2991/assehr.k.200401.043
ID  - Zhang2020
ER  -