Models for orbital debris and its optional solutions

DOI

10.2991/iceeecs-16.2016.168How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Orbital debris; Factor analysis; Grey Forecasting Model

Abstract

The problem of the total number of orbit debris in the future has been the center of public attention for a long time. On the basis of statistics data and accurate calculation, the paper builds models and set up a model system. Then combine reality and define six possible factors affect the volume of space junk. Using correlation analysis, the experiment determines the final four key factors: the annual number of failure of spacecraft launch, the number of annual retired spacecraft which will be junk, the amount of collision arising from avalanche effect, junk self-consumption. In the basis of this analysis, establishing Gray Forecast Model to predict the annual number of space junk in the next two centuries and find that there will be a substantial junk increase in the predictable future.

Copyright

© 2016, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

Download article (PDF)

TY  - CONF
AU  - Yuwei Ni
AU  - Jiahui Bi
AU  - Yilin Hou
PY  - 2016/12
DA  - 2016/12
TI  - Models for orbital debris and its optional solutions
BT  - Proceedings of the 2016 4th International Conference on Electrical & Electronics Engineering and Computer Science (ICEEECS 2016)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 870
EP  - 874
SN  - 2352-538X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/iceeecs-16.2016.168
DO  - 10.2991/iceeecs-16.2016.168
ID  - Ni2016/12
ER  -