A Practical Method to Hourly Forecast the Solar Irradiance
- https://doi.org/10.2991/ic3me-15.2015.234How to use a DOI?
- solar irradiance, neural network, hourly prediction, UV index, theoretical extraterrestrial irradiance
Based on the fact that the weather bureau currently does not provide solar irradiance forecast data, which is a key parameter to predict energy where photovoltaic (PV) is generated, a practical and indirect solar irradiance prediction model that is based on the RBF neural network and input by several of hourly sequences is proposed. In this paper, the model is built by using UV index sequence, theoretical extraterrestrial irradiance sequence, sequence of air temperature, sequence of weather types and historical solar irradiance sequence. The network is trained by GP-RBF algorithm to forecast the solar irradiance in a period of time to the future by dividing conditions into four types. The experiment results show that, when compared with the other forecasts and the real curves, the new model, which is based on UV index and theoretical extraterrestrial irradiance hourly sequences, is practical and highly accurate.
- © 2015, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Tao Hai AU - Kewei Wen AU - Jian Zhong AU - Xiang Hu AU - Zhao Zhang PY - 2015/08 DA - 2015/08 TI - A Practical Method to Hourly Forecast the Solar Irradiance BT - Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Material, Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering PB - Atlantis Press SP - 1214 EP - 1220 SN - 2352-5401 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/ic3me-15.2015.234 DO - https://doi.org/10.2991/ic3me-15.2015.234 ID - Hai2015/08 ER -