Japan's Relative GDP and Positions in Services Trade: Co-integration and Granger causality tests based on linear VEC models
- DOI
- 10.2991/febm-19.2019.50How to use a DOI?
- Keywords
- Japan; Granger causality; trade in services; relative GDP; time series analysis
- Abstract
This study explores the nexus among the Japanese trade in services to world trade and the economic development. Assuming that the relationship is linear, short-run Granger causality indicates that the export position negatively Granger causes the Japanese GDP relative to the world; the relative GDP exerts positive effects on the import position, and the export Granger causes the import position with negative effects while Granger causality runs from the later to the former with positive effects, and; the relative GDP positively Granger causes the Japanese import position. In the long-run, Wald tests show that the co-integration relationship Granger causes both the relative GDP and the import position in services, and; both export and import positions Granger cause the relative GDP, and both the relative GDP and the export position Granger cause the Japanese import position, all with positive effects. The export position in services seems to be exogenous to the model system, probably because of the policy interference of export facilitation.
- Copyright
- © 2019, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.
- Open Access
- This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
Cite this article
TY - CONF AU - Yu Hong AU - Yu-meng Yang AU - Kexuan Yu AU - Ai-jing Hu PY - 2019/12 DA - 2019/12 TI - Japan's Relative GDP and Positions in Services Trade: Co-integration and Granger causality tests based on linear VEC models BT - Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Economic and Business Management (FEBM 2019) PB - Atlantis Press SP - 205 EP - 208 SN - 2352-5428 UR - https://doi.org/10.2991/febm-19.2019.50 DO - 10.2991/febm-19.2019.50 ID - Hong2019/12 ER -