The Announcement Effect of Central Bank Digital Currency: An Empirical Analysis Based on Global Central Bank Statements

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6463-980-3_8How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Central bank digital currency; Announcement effect; Text analysis

Abstract

Following the European Central Bank’s pilot launch of the digital euro in July 2021, the Stoxx 600 bank index declined while fintech stocks rose. This indicates that central bank statements on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) have become another significant policy signal affecting asset prices, with markets re-evaluating the emerging opportunities and potential risks they entail. To measure the “announcement effect” of CBDC statements, this study employs the FinBERT model to conduct sentiment analysis on 127 statements from major global central banks between 2019 and 2024, converting them into quantitative metrics. Empirical analysis based on event study methodology reveals: positive CBDC statements lead to declines in bank stocks, confirming market concerns about “financial disintermediation”; meanwhile, positive CBDC statements generate significant positive returns for fintech stocks, reflecting market optimism about technological revolution. These two effects reveal the “double-edged sword” role of CBDCs in reshaping the financial landscape. This study provides new micro-level evidence for understanding policy signal transmission in the digital era, offering reference for policymakers to use prudent communication tools to balance innovative growth and stability demands.

Copyright

© 2025 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Jiahao Gao
PY  - 2025
DA  - 2025/12/26
TI  - The Announcement Effect of Central Bank Digital Currency: An Empirical Analysis Based on Global Central Bank Statements
BT  - Proceedings of the 2025 5th International Conference on Business Administration and Data Science (BADS 2025)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 72
EP  - 77
SN  - 2352-538X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-980-3_8
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6463-980-3_8
ID  - Gao2025
ER  -