Climate Futures and Agricultural Resilience in Arab Countries: Impacts on Food Security Across Multiple Scenarios

DOI

10.2991/978-94-6239-743-9_11How to use a DOI?

Keywords

climate change; Arab countries; food security; nutrition; hunger

Abstract

Agricultural systems and food security in general are at high risk from climate change, and the Arab region is among the most threatened because of arid climatic conditions, scarcity of freshwater, and reliance on climate-sensitive agriculture. This study examined anticipated changes in staple foods and livestock in Arab countries by 2050. This approach combines GIS-based spatial modeling with three GCMs (GFDL, Had GEM, and IPSL) under SSP1-2.6, along with the IMPACT partial-equilibrium model, calibrated to regional biophysical and economic realities. The findings showed that crop and livestock productivity decreased markedly across the region, with some of the most severe declines occurring in Mauritania, Iraq, and Somalia due to rising heat stress and water scarcity. Egypt is relatively resilient because of its well-developed irrigation and technology. These production losses translate into drastic declines in calories per capita (e.g., in Algeria, 3186–2461 kcal; 2318–1388 kcal in Yemen), increased risk of hunger (passing 70% in Yemen, Iraq, and Djibouti), and a sharp rise in child malnutrition, especially in Sudan and Yemen. Developed nations such as Algeria and Jordan also face significant nutritional disadvantages. Responses have included country-wise strategic adaptation plans, such as a focus on climate-smart agriculture, improved water management, modernization of agricultural infrastructure, and targeted social protection programs. Building resilience also depends on regional cooperation and the integration of climate adaptation into national policies. Future research should focus on further improving models that assess local climate impacts and adaptation efficiency, and on understanding the socio-economic pathways for adapting vulnerable groups to rising global climate threats in the Arab world.

Copyright

© 2026 The Author(s)

Open Access

Open Access This chapter is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/), which permits any noncommercial use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made.

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Yosri Nasr Ahmed
AU  - Maofang Gao
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/08/11
TI  - Climate Futures and Agricultural Resilience in Arab Countries: Impacts on Food Security Across Multiple Scenarios
BT  - Proceedings of API Conference 2025: Empowering the future: Energy Transition and Economic Diversification in Arab Countries
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 201
EP  - 219
SN  - 3005-155X
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6239-743-9_11
DO  - 10.2991/978-94-6239-743-9_11
ID  - Ahmed2026
ER  -