Proceedings of the 7th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention

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155 articles

Applicability Research of Drought Monitoring Indexes on Mongolia Plateau Based on the EOS/MODIS Time Sequence

Duwala Duwala, Yushan Yushan, Narisu Narisu, Guixiang Liu
Taking Mongolia plateau as a study area, make use of the temperature and vegetation products of the EOS/MODIS data to calculate four index they are vegetation condition index (VCI) and temperature condition index (TCI) and vegetation health index (VHI) andÿvegetation supply water indexÿ(VSWI). Mapped...

Risk Analysis and Strong Ground Motion Characteristics of Ludian Ms 6.5 Earthquake

Sen Qiao, Xueliang Chen, Aiwen Liu, Zengping Wen, Xiaojun Li, Zongchao Li, Tiefei Li
There was an earthquake hit Ludian county, Yunnan province on August 3, 2014, and the seismogenic fault was the North-West Baogunao-Xiaohe Fault. The magnitude of the surface wave magnitude (Ms) was 6.5, not so large, but the earthquake caused severe casualties. The main-shock strong ground motions were...

The Return Period Analysis of Beijing Heavy Rainfall Based on Copula

Weihua Cao
Heavy rainfall is a serious hazard, which lead to losses of urban property and cause casualties. In this paper, based on hourly precipitation data of Guanxiangtai meteorological station of Beijing, bivariate joint distribution of heavy rainfall is established using the observed data of accumulated precipitation...

Study on the Risk Analysis and Emergency Management System of Major Accidents in Chemical Industry Park

Changxing Ren, Haitao Li, Ning Zhou, Xiongjun Yuan
According to the urgent require and hot issues on the region accidents risk and management in chemical industry park, some accident cases at home and abroad were collected and classfied by the accident types. Based on the accident theory of chain of accident caused, the evolution basic parameters and...

Human Health and Ecological Risk Assessment of Two Common Antibiotics in Drinking Source Water

Hanyu Ju, Jiquan Zhang, Caiyun Sun, Sijia Li
Take theÿsulfamethoxazoleÿand metronidazole as two examples, exploring the spatial distribution of antibiotics in two drinking water sources, which are in Xin Licheng reservoir and Shitou Koumen reservoir, and evaluating ecological risk and human health risk. The average concentration ofÿsulfamethoxazoleÿand...

Researches on Welder's Pneumoconiosis Risk Assessment Methods Based on Logistic Regression

Deyin Huang, Minyan Li, Mao Liu
Objective To research the risk assessment method of welder's pneumoconiosis caused by welding fume exposure, predict the incidence of welder's pneumoconiosis, and provide technical basis for occupational risk management. Method Welders of a large-scale agricultural machinery processing workshop were...

Simulation of Spatial Distributions of Atmospheric Heavy Metals in Xinzhuang and Assessment of Their Health Risks

Yanjiao Chen, Yaobin Meng, Hongbin Cao
The exhaust gas generated by waste incineration plant contains heavy metals. They will harm organ function and human health. The CALPUFF model was used to simulate the transport and diffusion of heavy metals of cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu) and nickel (Ni) in atmosphere emitted from exhaust...

The Risk of Securities-based Crowd-funding in China and its Preventive Measures

Ronggang Zhang, Runheng Wang
In recent years, securities-based crowdfunding has been developed rapidly in China. But investors are facing the risk of information asymmetry, law, financial business, operation and information security. This paper sorts the risks by using FAHP, and shows that: the degree of prominence from high to...

Loan Risk Compensation Fund Stimulating Effect on SME Loans Inspection

Miao Tian, Mu Zhang
To study the stimulating effect of loan risk compensation fund for SME loans, loans play a more effective risk compensation mechanism, the paper 2015 cross-sectional data 15 provinces and is calculated using the risk-based approach to verify the compensation fund for SME analysis of the role of loans...

Premium Subsidies, Efficiency Loss and Externalities of Agricultural Target Price Insurance---A Theoretical Framework

Liang Zhao, Lei Xu, Ningning Zhang
In the study, analyzes and define the agricultural target price insurance. Then researches the mechanism of the premium subsidies and direct subsidies and think that the premium subsidies will result in losing efficiency. Find the causes and extent of efficiency loss and concluded By constructing the...

Design of the Insurance Contract Based on the Weather Indices of Chilling Injury in Litchi and Demonstration Application

Chunyi Wang, Jinghong Zhang, Yajie Zhang, Haijing Huang, Xiufen Che
Chilling injuries severely affect and restrict the litchi production in Hainan. Accordingly, the studies on the design of insurance contracts based on the weather indices and will be of great significance for transferring disaster risks, reducing the losses of planters. Using the data of litchi yield...

Research on Vulnerability Curve of Waterlogging Disaster for Maize Based on CERES-Maize Model in the Midwest of Jilin Province

Guo Enliang, Jiquan Zhang, Yongfang Wang, Zhenhua Dong
Under the background of global warming, the loss caused by extreme precipitation is becoming more and more serious. As a bridge between risk and disaster losses, at present, research on vulnerability curve has become research focus in the field of disaster risk In this study, based on meteorological...

A Study on Recognition and Assessment of Agricultural Weather-related Disaster Risk

Zhao Sijian, Zhang Qiao, Nie Qian
In this article, crop's weather-related disaster risk would be recognized and assessed on the basis of time-serial yield data and time-serial weather data, using maize in Xiao County and rice in Lai'an County, that are located in Anhui Province, as a case study. In general, a weather-related disaster...

Life Water Demand Prediction and Water Security for West Liaohe River

Danjun Li, Xingpeng Liu, Jiquan Zhang, Feng Zhang
Scientific and reasonable prediction is conducive to the rational allocation of water resources,using 2008-2013 statistical yearbook data to calculate life water consumption, with the help of gray prediction GM (1, 1) model the water demand is simulated, the error between actual water consumption and...

Statistical Significance of Typhoon Risk and Calculation of the Risk per Year

Chongfu Huang
The risks in terms of statistical significance refer to ones that could be analyzed by using random samples. The typhoon risk in statistics is the average loss caused by typhoons. The risk per year calculated with a stochastic process has more clear physical meaning. Monte Carlo method can not improve...

Research on the Mutation Mechanism of Victim's Psychology and Behavior after Natural Disaster Based on Catastrophe Theory

Weiwei Zhang, Xuanhua Xu, Bin Pan
Aiming at the problem of victim's rational and irrational behavior during recovery stage in natural disaster, this paper analyzed the victim's psychological and behavioral characteristics and influencing factors during recovery stage based on lots of literatures and an interview with victims. Besides,...

Study on hazard factor assessment caused by snow disaster in pastoral areas of Inner Mongolia grassland based on Multi-source Remote Sensing Data

Chula Sa, Guixiang Liu, Mulan Wang, Yuhai Bao
The daily snow depth time series data set from passive microwave remote sensing(1978-2012) were used in this paper. Establishment of snow cover index to evaluate the risk factors of disaster.The areas with highest risk of snow disaster happened were mainly distributed in northeast of Dongwuzhumuqin banner,...

Risk Analysis of Mongolian Erannis Jacobsoni Djak's Invasion into the Inner Mongolia Area

Xiaojun Huang, Yuhai Bao, Altanchimeg D., Ren Bu, Miao Fu, Mei Yong
Erannis jacobsoni Djak is the most important forest pest in Mongolia and has seriously destructive effect to forest ecological system. It is important to study the invasion risk of Inner Mongolia, which is of great significance for the effective prevention of cross-border disaster. Based on it, firstly,...

On the Hazard Identification Method of Plastic Toys

Xia Liu, Bisong Liu, Qian Wu, Ya Li
Safety of plastics toys has been paid more and more attention. Risk identification of plastic toy in product life cycle, has important effect on promoting the safety of the products. A comprehensive list is established during the design stage.During the manufacturing process, safety check list is used....

Study on Emergency Management System of Dangerous Chemicals Accidents based on the Dynamic Risk

Xuanya Liu, Jingjing Li, Ning Zhou
According to the characteristics and evolution law of dangerous chemicals accidents, based on disaster accident emergency handling requirements, the research on dynamic risk analysis and prediction technology system of dangerous chemicals accidents were carried out based on real-time dynamic information...

Risk Analysis of Water Masses Degeneration in the Northern Gulf

Ye Yuan, Peinan Zheng, Zhouwen Xiao, Zhicheng Mao
Through the analysis of historical data show that climate change and precipitation is the basic reason of Northern Gulf water properties. Analysis of temperature and salinity in the East and west of the Straits of the Joan Strait shows that the northern Bay maintains the characteristics of temperature...

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Distribution and Influencing Factors of Grassland Fire in China-Mongolia Border Regions in Recent 15 Years

Yulong Bao, Lina Yinshan
In view of the grassland fire occurred in 3 banner of East Ujimqin banner in China and adjacent Mongolia as research area, the spatiotemporal characteristics was analyzed by GIS space analysis method and using the 2000-2014 MCD45A burned products,MOD13Q1 products data and meteorological data.The results...

Impacts of Land Use Change on Net Primary Productivity in Fenhe River Basin

Jin Duan, Yaolong Liu, Yamin Jia
With the enhancement ofÿthe evolution of the natural environmentÿand of the human activitiesÿonÿnatural ecosystems,ÿland use and land cover change (LUCC)ÿhas become an important factorÿaffecting the ecosystem and environment. Study on land useÿand landÿcover change (LUCC) and itsÿimpact on the ecosystem...

A Method for Debris Flow Management Based on Numerical Simulation

Jun Wang, Qinghua Gong, Haixian Xiong, Xiaoling Yin, Shun Yang
Debris flow disasters are usually accompanied by serious losses of lives and properties. As one of the important and effective means of disaster non-engineering mitigation measures, disaster management is extremely important for disaster mitigation and sustainable development of economy and society....

Evaluation of Eco-environmental Sensitivity in Xilingol Grassland

Li Mei, Shan Yin, Wala Du, Yuhai Bao, Shan Yu
This paper selected the soil erosion, land desertization, bio-inhabitation as sensitive factor to research eco-environmental sensitivity spatial distribution characteristics of the Xilingol Grassland. (1)slight sensitivity is the main level of soil erosion sensitivity, which mainly distributes in the...

Rainstorm Waterlogging Causes and Prevention Measures in Urban Area of Hohhot City

Wentong Li, Zhifen Sun, Narenmandula Narenmandula, Buren Buren, Yuhai Bao, Eerdunmutu Jin
Analyzing the reasons of waterlogging, the main reasons of waterlogging in Hohhot city includes the change of climate leads to the frequent occurrence of extreme rainstorm, with the change of underlying surface of the city the process of runoff of rainwater also changed the low criteria of diainage systems...

The Analysis of Natural Disasters in China from 1998 to 2016 based on Text Mining

Xiao Liu, Haixiang Guo, Yijing Li, Chunmiao Yang
This paper takes the 248 disaster events happened in China from 1998 to 2016 as samples, uses text mining, descriptive statistics, association rules and other methods to implement event extraction for disaster events in history, and then analyzes characteristics of the disasters including type, location...

Assessment of Earthquake Disaster Risk in Gansu Province

Wenkai Chen, Huijuan Pei, Congwang XI, Yanping Sun, Wen Li
This paper established the earthquake disaster risk assessment index system for Gansu Province firstly, determined weights of index factor, and then calculated the earthquake disaster risk, exposure, vulnerability and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity based on GIS software platform, finally...

Spatiotemporal Variations of Hydrologic Extremes and Response to Extreme Precipitation in Xiang River Basin

Linlin Cheng, Juan Du, Yumeng Yang
Trends of streamflow and water level extremes are significant indicators reflecting the risk of floods and droughts. The study on trends of hydrologic extremes can provide references for water resource management and flood risk analysis. Based on Mann-Kendall test, this article detected existing trends...

Meteorological Risk Analysis of Port Crane Operations and Warning Managements

Feng Wang, Qiang Long, Chang Wang, Linlin Jiang
With the rapid development of China's marine economy and the port economy, involved in the work of the security problem is becoming more and more prominent, especially the crane operation risk relates to the port operation, which gets more attention. The operational risk and the early warning and scheduling...

Research on the Early Warning Demonstration System of Freak Wave

Peinan Zheng, Xiaoting Li, Shouhua Liu
The urgent need for ship safety and security of maritime activities, utilization of marine survey and satellite remote sensing data and other information retrieval sea waves, wave spectrum analysis of variation characteristics of freak waves occur when mixed wave conditions, research waves, surge of...

Summary of Storm-induced Dam-break Hazard of Tailings Pond

Qinghua Gong, Jun Wang, Junxiang Zhang
This paper reviews the status of the tailings dam safety and flood control study. The current tailings security research mainly comprising security monitoring and early warning, failure mechanism, break model, the risk of dam failure and emergency decision-making. This paper summarized the main achievements...

Household Risk Factors and Intention of Safety Equipment Use among the Elderly: a Survey from Two Districts of Beijing

Qiujie Zhang, Yingnan Ma, Wei Zhu, Xing Gao, Pengxia Zhao
To understand the household risk factors and willingness of safety equipment use of the elderly, 789 elderly people were surveyed with questionnaires in two districts of Beijing. Related factors in gender, age, level of education, physiological status, psychological status, household environment conditions...

Construction of the Social Impact Assessment Index System and Its Conceptual Framework of Grassland Drought Disaster Based on SD Model

Zhenhua Dong, Jiquan Zhang, Zhijun Tong, A. Rong
Grassland drought disaster is one of the main meteorological disasters with a wide range of influence, long duration and difficult to deal with. It not only poses a great loss and threat to the economic and ecological environment, but also causes serious secondary disasters to the society. Based on the...

Measure the market risk of the American basket options based on the Least Square Monte Carlo Simulation Approach

Qiang Li, Xueling Zhu
This article applies a simple yet powerful LSM approach for approximating the value of American basket options by simulation.The primary objective is to compare basket Index prices derived from different noise processes. As alternatives,the Brownian motion benchmark is compared to noise processes driven...

Research on Credit Risk Early-Warning for Listed Companies in Chengyu Economic Zone Based on Best Fuzzy Support Vector Machine

Kai Xu, Zongfang Zhou
Taking listed companies in Chengyu Economic Zone as an example, this paper introduces the fuzzy algorithm into support vector machine (SVM), constructing the model of fuzzy support vector machine (FSVM) for Credit risk early-warning, which based on four different kernel functions (linear, polynomial,...

Research on the Risk of Individual Stock Investment -- Take the Brokerage Sector as an Example

Zheng Ma, Hongmei Zhang, Ziyan Wang
Today, Invest in the stock market has increasingly perfect continuous development, individual investors has gradually become the main force of stock investment, but due to various constraints, individual investors for face of massive investment information, they cannot identify the valuable investment...

On Application of KMV Model in Credit Risk Management of China's Securities Companies

Zhiqiang Chen, Hongmei Zhang
As China's market-oriented and international level gradually increased, financial institutions, particularly, the securities firm's has faced much more risks which has showing a diverse, volatile trend. Through quantitative analysis methods, used KMV model to analyzes the credit risk of domestic securities...

Financial Agglomeration Level Domain Western Province Based on Principal Component Analysis Measurement

Hongmei Zhang, Teng Li, Xiangrui Meng, Ziyan Wang
In order to analyze the level of China's western provincial financial agglomeration. In this paper, based on the really situation of western China, by constructing domain Agglomeration Level Measurement of financial evaluation index system of western provinces. using principal component analyze the western...

The Research on SME's Equity Value with Stochastic Pricing Method

Changbing Yang, Mu Zhang
Abstract:in order to value the equity of SME effectively, we modify the traditional DCF model, namely, we use stochastic variable to describe the factors which have direct impact on cash-in and cash-out; then we use stochastic equation to portray the change of equity valuation; finally, we will simulate...

Spatial-temporal Pattern of Water requirement in Xiliaohe Watershed

Rui Wang, Jiquan Zhang, Feng Zhang, Enliang Guo, Meng Zhu, Danjun Li
Based on the climatic data from 23 meteorological stations throughout the Xiliaohe watershed during1961 and 2010, every month's spring maize water requirement are calculated by Penman-Monteith model, In addition, Spatial distribution of water requirement in Xiliaohe watershed can be analyzed using the...

Maize Drought and Flood Disaster Hazard Identification and Its Response to Climate Change in Jilin,China

Danjun Li, Jiquan Zhang, Enliang Guo, Rui Wang
Jilin province is an important corn Production base in China. Due to climate change caused by meteorological disasters has a great influence on maize yield. The drought and rain waterlogging are common meteorological disasters during maize growth period. Using the temperature and precipitation data during...

Financing Risks in the Development of Urbanization in China -- Based on the Perspective of Rural Land Property Right Mortgage Financing

Jiao Yin, Hongmei Zhang
At present, China's urbanization is in a stage of rapid development. In the promotion of urbanization development and the integration of urban and rural areas, it's becoming crucial to solve the problems of the rural finance. As a new way of financing, the land finance has caused widespread attention....

Development of and Risk Analysis on Regional Construction-purposed Sea Use

Shufen Liu, Jingyi Zhang, Wei Xu
Regarding regional construction-purposed sea use in China, this paper introduces its status quo from such three aspects as sea use management system, regional distribution and annual changes; analyzes its risk factors and genesis from such three aspects as nature, society and management; presents the...

The Seismic Hazard Estimate of the Manila Trench Subduction Zone based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution

Jianwei Tian, Zhe Liu, Luchuan Ren
The Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is a distribution model of the generalized extreme value theory. The author choose the Manila trench subduction zone as a potential source area, to establish its seismic hazard estimation model based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, by fitting magnitude...

Dynamic Risk Analysis on City Waterlogging Disaster Based on Scenario Simulation

Xilei Pang, Chongfu Huang, Yingju Zhang
In the view of systematicness and uncertainty of disaster risk, the paper firstly adopts parameter estimation statistical algorithm, information diffusion model and geographic information space analysis technology to analyze hazard occurrence possibility, affected population vulnerability and rainstorm...

Temporal dynamics of vegetation NDVI and its response to drought in Songnen grassland

Qiyun Ma, Jiquan Zhang, Siqin Tong, Zhenhua Dong, Xuehai Nie, Yanan Chen
Based on daily data recorded in 13 weather stations in Songnen grassland over the period 1982 - 2013, temporal variations in drought were investigated using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and characteristics in NDVI were also analyzed using a time series data set of GIMMS...

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Vegetation Analysis Based on MOD13 in Mu Us Sandy Land from 2000 to 2015

Ge Qiu, Yuilong Bao, Yuihai Bao, Jiabin Wu
To comprehend the variation of vegetation in Mu Us sandy land, the research use Mu Us sandy land as research area and make Uxin Qi(county) as a sample to anticipate the vegetation index variation on different land-use type. 365 images of Mod13 product are basic data which from 2000 to2015 and the spatial...

Change of Desertification based on MODIS Data in the Mongolia Border Region

Rula Sa, Shan Yin, Yuhai Bao, Huijuan Bao
In order to analyze the changes of desertification in Mongolia border region, this paper took the Dongwuzhumuqin and Halahahe as the research area, based on 2000-2015 years Vegetation growth season MODIS NDVI data, the vegetation coverage was calculated by using pixel two model, desertification index...

Drought Temporal Variation Characteristics Analysis based on the PDSI Data in Mongolian Plateau

Narisu Narisu, Yuhai Bao, Bao Yushan
According to Mongolian Plateau more droughts, serious hazards, selected 1980-2013 Mongolia Plateau 101 meteorological stations of month precipitation, annual temperature meteorological data, based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) on the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of drought...