Proceedings of the 7th Annual Meeting of Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention

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155 articles

The Validity of Behavior Against Drought Disaster of Farm Households in Yunnan Mountain--Based on Different Body Discriminant Angles

Min Tian, Yimeng Cheng, Jianlan Li, Shiliang Hu, Xinhui Xu
To analysis the efficient of farmer's disaster preparedness behaviors, we built and compared efficient index of two models. The one model's subject was experts and calculated by AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), and another subject was farmers and processed by TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by...

Spatial-temporal Distribution and Risk Analysis of Terrorist Attack Fires

Guohui Li, Cheng Wang, Lizeng Zhao, Weiping Han, Ying Wang
The word focused on the terrorist attack fires (TAFs). The frequency-fatality distribution and the spatial-temporal evolution of TAFs under the influence of targets, regions, and years were investigated. The power low and scale invariance theory was used to identify the distribution and evolution of...

Emergency Disposal Strategy of Fire Fighting Forces Dealing with Dangerous Chemicals Disaster Accident under the Background of Terrorism

Peng Zhang, Liwen Liu, Jingyuan Wang, Xiaoqian Zhang
In recent years, under the threat of the occurrence of terrorist incidents and the "three forces" in our country, fire fighting forces need to handling with the possible leakage and explosion in the production, storage, transportation of dangerous chemicals due to various reasons such as disaster accident...

The Research of the Interactive Relationship Based on the VAR Model between the Prices of Pork, Soybeans and Corn

Siyu Mo, Wen Han
The research of the interactive relationship based on the VAR model between the prices of pork, soybeans and corn in Guizhou, provides reasonable reference to make effective policy of adjusting pork price regularly, and establish the necessary warning system for the production of the pigs. The article...

Spatiotemporal Variations of Drought in Inner Mongolia over the Past 50 years Based on SPEI

Siqin Tong, Jiquan Zhang, Quan Lai, Rina Wu
The Standardized Precipitation Evapotran- spiration Index (SPEI) was used as the indicator of drought, calculating the monthly precipitation and monthly mean temperature among the 109 weather stations in Inner Mongolia from 1961 to 2010 to obtain the SPEI value of each site at the time scale of 12 month....

Evolvement Characters of Aeolian Desertification of Horqin Sandy Land in the Past 34 Years-A Case Study of Naiman Banner

Yongfang Wang, Jiquan Zhang, Enliang Guo, Zhenhua Dong
We interpreted of Landsat TM remote sensing images of 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2013 of Naiman Banner and obtained the different degrees of desertified land area in different times. The results show that the aeolian desertification in Naiman Banner experienced a process of reversion, development and reversion...

Remote Sensing Monitoring of Soil Moisture Content in Xilin River Basin

Hongbo Yu, Qiaofeng Zhang
The study area is the Xilin River basin. Remote sensing approach was used to retrieve soil moisture content based on the surface water capacity index by using MODIS images from July 2000 to July 2012. This can reflect the scope, extent and development of the drought in the study area in a timely and...

Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Dust Storm in Inner Mongolia in Recent 30 Years

Terigele Terigele, YongMei YongMei, YinShan YinShan
In this study, using the technology of statistical and geographic information system as the main research methods study characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of Sandstorm in Inner Mongolia, by analyzing from the characteristics of a wide range of dust weather and through on a longer time...

Research of Enterprise Knowledge Absorption Strategy Based on Big Data Platform

Jianchun Yang, Ruo Shi
With the coming of the Big Data period, it is crucial for business to deal with customer data. First, we analyze the characteristics of customer dada: volume and diversity. Then, we disucss the challange business faced with in organization management practice. Bsed on this, we put forward three strategies...

A Tentative Exploration of Structuring Information in Community Emergency Management Risk Radar by Presetting Forms

Yifang Leng, Chongfu Huang
this paper proposed a method to help transform the unstructured data of community emergency management risk radar, by understanding the risk awareness and expression habit of community residents, a series of forms can be developed to summarize the problem, them the Multiple Internet of Intelligences...

Study on the Integrated Risk Radar Model in Natural Scenic Areas

Junxiang Zhang, Chongfu Huang, Shanfeng Hu
Facing the severe challenges of disaster risk management and the continuous improvement of the quality requirements of tourists in natural scenic areas, the construction of Smart Disaster Prevention in scenic areas has become a very important and urgent work. Integrated risk radar has the role of discovery,...

Study on Risk Communication Model of Stakeholders in the Flood Control of River Basin Based on the IOI Technology

Yi Liang, Chongfu Huang
Risk communication is one of the important risk management tools for stakeholders to achieve consensus. In the flood disaster risk governance, effective risk communication between the stakeholders of the flood control on basin reservoirs is an important way when flood could not avoid. Aiming at the shortage...

Influence and Risk Assessment of Climate Change in Airport of China based on Hesistant Analytic Hierarchy Process and TOPSIS

Chenyang Song, Ren Zhang, Taiping Hou, Chengzu Bai, Kefeng Liu, Qiang Long
The risks of climate change in six major airports in China's coastal areas.

Assessment of West Liaohe River Basin's Ecological Vulnerability and Temporal-Spatial Distribution based on Landscape Pattern

Feng Zhang, Jiquan Zhang, Yanan Chen, Qiyun Ma, Enliang Guo, Yongfang Wang
West Liaohe River Basin, which is known as a typical ecological vulnerable district of Northeast China, is taken as a case study in this paper. By collecting 3 period Landsat TM image of 1992,2002 and 2012, the landscape pattern figure is interpreted. Landscape sensitivity index and landscape adaptability...

Risk Identification Model Based on System Theory and Its Implementation Technical Analysis

Hubo Zhang, Tiezhong Liu
In view of the interactive and systematic problems of accident caused by high technology, the method of risk identification in the perspective of system theory is studied. We analyze the Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Process (STAMP) and the basic steps of Hazard Analysis Technology (STPA) based...

Prediction of Seawater Intrusion in Laizhou Bay Area under Groundwater Pumping Activities

Xiankui Zeng, Dong Wang, Jichun Wu
With the rapid development of society and economy in China, the demand for water resource is increasing with industry and agriculture activities. Due to the excessive exploitation of groundwater resource, and global climate change, the seawater intrusion had arisen at some coastal areas in China. In...

Study on the Warning of Giant Jellyfish Disaster in the Coastal Waters of Qingdao

Lingjuan Wu, Tao Bai, Guiyan Liu
In this paper, with reference to emergency response and warning standard of marine ecological disaster such as red tide and green tide, the methods of external giant jellyfish disaster warning in the coastal waters of Qingdao have been studied according to jellyfish species, toxicity, distribution density,...

Early Warnings and Benefits Assessment for Disastrous Weathers during 2012 Typhoon

Yanjun Zhou, Sha Wang
The Typhoon Damrey, which was entering the Bohai Sea area of Qinghuangdao in 2012, is analyzed comprehensively and evaluated for services using the data from FY-2E Infrared, radar, Micaps 3.1 system, insular stations, buoys, and numerical products, and synchronously comparing between disasters report,...

The Monitoring of a Severe Convective Case in Bohai Sea Area on August 31,2015

Yanjiang Li, Yanjun Zhou
using the synchronous data such as weather radar, oceanic WRF model etc., a severe convective weather process has been analyzed on August 31, 2015 in Bohai Sea area,the results show that the shear line moved eastward and enhanced at the 925hPa and 850hPa in Bohai Bay from 08:00 to 20:00,the index K was...

Forecast and Disaster Cause Analysis of Tropical Storm Damrey into the Gulf of Bohai

Zhiming Yu, Siyao Wang, Xiaodong Zhang
Based on the data of FY-2E infrared cloud image, radar, micaps3.1, island observation station, large buoy, and numerical weather forecasting products, effects of tropical storm Damrey in 2012 on Tangshan were analyzed, forecast and disaster cause of tropical storm Damrey were also analyzed. The results...

Risk Assessment of Typhoon Storm Surge Disasters in Guangdong Province Based on the Improved Fuzzy Bayesian Network

Chengzu Bai, Ren Zhang, JianQi Zhang, Ting Wang
To expand insufficient information resource and express fuzzy uncertainty for risk assessment, a new Bayesian network was proposed in this paper. Information diffusion model and triangle fuzzy values were employed to improve the prior probability, using Monte Carlo method to establish the conditional...

Regionalization of Flood Disaster Risk on the County Scale in Semiarid Region-in HeLinGe'Er Case

Xuguang Liu, Ren Bu, Yulong Bao, Baocheng Wei
Based on using basic geographic,socio-economic statistics and meteorological data of HeLinGe'Er, in addition the mechanisms of flood disaster for the risk analysis and divisions,it formed flood disaster index system of risk analysis,it including the indexs of hazard factor,hazard inducing environment,disaster...

The Response Characteristics of Xilingol Grassland to Uneven Distribution of Precipitation at Temporal and Spatial Scale

Qiaofeng Zhang, Hongbo Yu, Guixiang Liu, Yuhai Bao
Precipitation is the most important water supply source, it has important significance on the vegetation growth, and was an important factor affecting the drought severity in Xilingol grassland. Based on 15 meteorological stations precipitation data and MODIS MOD13A3 NDVI data, Pearson correlation analysis...

Evaluation of Typhoon Disaster Losses of Hainan Island Rubber Plantation

Jinghong Zhang, Haijing Huang, Xiufen Che, Mingjie Zhang
Hainan Island is selected as the study area, which is the main base of natural rubber production. In this research, according to the analysis and study of the cause of rubber wind disaster, parameters in the evaluation model was determined with statistics method based on the environment background and...

The Application of the Hesistant Analytic Hierarchy Process in the Natural Risk Assessment of Overseas Support Bases

Deliang Jiang, Ren Zhang, Zhe Wang, Mengqian Yang
Focusing on the potential natural risk of overseas support bases, the paper structures the assessment model based on the risk identification according to the particular political and military function. The model uses the Hesitated Analytic Hierarchy Process to collect the specialistic information in...

Method of Seismic Tsunami Hazard Estimate Effect Coupling Uncertainty of Magnitude and Focal Depth

Zhe Liu, Jianwei Tian, Luchuan Ren
We discuss a method to estimate the seismic tsunami hazard coupling uncertainty of upper magnitude limit and focal depth in this paper. The method of estimating uncertainties of upper magnitude limit and focal depth is discussed. Manila trench and Ryukyu trench subduction zones are chosen to be the potential...

Research on the Application of AIRO Model in Indirect Economic Loss Assessment of Disaster

Peng Zhang, Lizhi Wu, Jing Xin, Jing Liu
The assessment of the indirect economic loss cased by the disaster has great significance on the reconstruction. However, when assessing the indirect loss after disaster, it needs research on the scientific and sensitivity of the parameters of the model structure and the availability of the corresponding...

The Study on Evaluation of Outsize Flood Based on Flow Betweenness Centrality

Jie Liu, Xuanhua Xu, Bin Pan
Aiming at the risk problems of social stability caused by outsize flood, on the base of the topology map for the evolution of flood social stability risk, we should focus on the position of the risk in the topology map for the evolution of flood social stability risk. The flow betweenness centrality...

Performance Evaluation of Planting Insurance Premium Subsidies in China-Based on the dynamic DEA and the three stage DEA

Jinzheng Ren, Shisen Li
Using dynamic DEA and the three stage DEA method ,we evaluated the operating efficiency of the insurance premium subsidy funds in the provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China during 2008-2012. In the process ,we selected the 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions as decision...

Analysis on the Present Situation of Agricultural Catastrophe Risk Diversification in China

Guoqu Deng, Shujuan Kang, Kai Guo
The Chinese government has been working to explore the spread of agricultural catastrophe risk management. The agricultural catastrophe risk diversification has experienced the financial leading mode and the financial support mode, at present has the transition to the multi-level risk dispersion model...

Vegetation NPP Changes in Horqin Sandy Land During 2000-2013

Yinshan Yinshan, Suriguga Bao, Yuhai Bao
Using remote sensing data and ground meteorological station data, we estimated NPP of vegetation during the growing season from 2000 to 2013 in Horqin sandy land under the support of remote sensing and GIS Technology. We analyzed the relations between the annual NPP with climate factors and human activities....

Study on the Spatial-Temporal Coupling Relationship between Economic Development and Industrial Water Use in West Liaohe River Basin

Pengda Lin, Zhijun Tong, Jiquan Zhang, Zhenhua Dong, Xiangqian Li
Based on the center-of-gravity model and GIS, a measure of the spatial coupling of economic and industrial water use was obtained. Researching the trajectories, evolution and common characteristics the center-of-gravity of economic and industrial water use of 10 fourF F drainage from 2004 to 2013 in...

Credit Index Research of Chinese Medicine Market ---Take a Chinese Medicine Market in Chengdu for Example

Binbin Yang, Zongfang Zhou
Drug is a top priority in the people's livelihood and health care.As an important component in our country's drugs work,Chinese medicine industry have resulted in a lot of achievements after 20 years of development. However,there are serious information asymmetry problems in Chinese medicine professional...

Risk Assessment Method of Coastal Erosion Disasters

Shiyong Wen, Fengshou Zhang, Xiang Wang, Xinxin Wang, Fei Li, Fei Wang, Ning Gao, Xuegong Xu
Coastal erosion disaster is one of marine disasters. Coastal erosion disasters caused large areas of land loss, destroyed coastal ecological environment system, and seriously affect the sustainable development of social economy in coastal areas. To effectively cope with the coastal erosion disasters...

Research on Vulnerability Curve of Grassland Snow Disaster of Livestock on Historical Disaster Data in Xilingol

Si Ha, Jiquan Zhang, Zhenhua Dong, Xiangqian Li, Enliang Guo
Natural disaster risk is the possibility of disaster losses, depending on hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and emergency response and recovery capability. Vulnerability is to measure the degree of hazard bearing body when suffered damage, which is not only an important part of risk assessment for loss...

Assessment of Water Resources Security in Semi Arid Area based on GIS-A Case Study in Naiman County, Inner Mongolia

Xiangqian Li, Zhijun Tong, Zhenhua Dong, Si Ha, Feng Zhang, Pengda Lin
As basic production and living materials, water resources is essential for social-economic development, and is increasingly becoming the limiting factor of regional economic sustainable development. Naiman County is located in the south edge of Horqin sandy land, which faces great challenge of water...

Progress on the Pest Risk Analysis of China

Jianwei Li, Xiaoyan Zhang, Yibing Liang, Hao Wu
In this paper, a comprehensive review of the entry pest risk analysis of China was conducted on five aspects, such as legal framework, organization structure and management procedures, technical methods, information management, and application of risk analysis. It can be concluded that the pest risk...

System design of loss fast evaluation for grassland drought disaster based on RS, GIS and GPS

Qiyun Ma, Jiquan Zhang, Rui Wang, Si Ha, Meng Zhu, Danjun Li
Loss fast evaluation for grassland drought disaster is an important content of grassland natural disaster research. The basic situation and damage of grassland drought disaster in china were introduced in this paper. On that basis, the goal about loss fast evaluation for grassland drought disaster was...

Analysis of Drought Characteristic in Sunit Prairie Based on Precipitation Anomaly Percentage during 2000-2015

Xiaodong Sun, Guixiang Liu, Yuhai Bao, Xiaode Zhang
According to the monthly precipitation data collected from three meteorological stations in Xilingol League from 2000 to 2015, annual and seasonal drought features in Sunit prairie for 16 years were detailed analysis by using precipitation anomaly percentage from the drought frequency and the changing...

Research on Desertification Information Translation and Dynamic Change: A Case of Xilinguole League

Chunlan Li, Richa Hu, Shan Yin, Ren Bu, Yuhai Bao, Yuwei Li, A. Latengtuya, Huijuan Bao
In this study, remote sensing and 3S technology, combination of field investigation and field recording were used to extract the information of desertification and analyze the dynamic changes of land desertification in Xilinguole League, trying to find out the characteristic desertification change of...

Effects of Land Use Change on Vegetation Coverage of Typical Steppe Region - Case in Xilin Gol Grassland

Daoriao Daoriao, Jincai Xu, Yinshan Yinshan, Suriguga Bao
In this paper, 2000 - NDVI data 2014 Xilingol Grassland normalized difference vegetation index and land use Xilingol data, with the support of ENVI and Arcgis software, spatial and temporal variation in NDVI, analyzes Xilingol grassland vegetation cover condition the overall variation between distribution...

A Platform of Risk Analysis and Early-warning for Urban Road Waterlogging Problem Based on IOI Technology

Fanlei Zeng, Jianwei Liu, Chongfu Huang
Urban waterlogging, which impact traffic and residents directly, is influenced both by meteorological and urban drainage capacity. Urban waterlogging problem is also a complex issue involving meteorological department, the municipal sector, the transport sector and the general public, which may be solved...

Demand Setting in Internet of Intelligences based on the Factor Vine

Jun Guo, Chongfu Huang, Peizhuang Wang
In this paper, the factor space theory is introduced to Internet of Intelligences (IOI). The factor vine is used as the theoretical basis for the demand setting in IOI so that the clients could clearly express their problems and the agents could provide effective information. In this way, the operation...

A Study on Forming a Consensus Measure Space of Macro-seismic Anomalies

Weidan Wang, Chongfu Huang
Besides a simple list, the current studies of macro-seismic anomalies are mostly statistical analysis based on single kind of anomaly or several seismic data. Lack of the support of measure space to synthesize macro-seismic anomalies, it is difficult to carry out systematic scientific research. This...

Simulation Research of Evolutionary Game to Bank and Technological SME under the Pledge Financing Mode

Huafeng Chen, Mu Zhang
In this paper, Matlab is used to simulation research based on evolutionary game mode of technological SME and bank under the pledge of intellectual Property financing. The evolutionary game results are analyzed to 3 different evolutionary strategies. Game strategies are not converged to a stable value...

Forest Fire Risk Assessment Based on Ecological and Economic Value - Take Yunnan Province as an Example

Chenxue Gao, Ming Wang
Taking ecological and economic value of forest into consideration during forest fire risk assessment could provide a scientific reference for integrated risk governance. Machine learning was combined with event simulation to implement fire risk assessment based on ecological and economic value of Yunnan...

Case Analysis on Risk Management Process in Public Safety of Grassroots Organization Based on ISO 31000

Wei Zhu, Yafei Wang, Yingnan Ma, Hui Lv
In view of the lack of specific implementation details of the ISO31000 risk management process, the present paper carries out a case study of the ISO31000 standard in the implementation of the public security risk management process. The paper expounds the every stage of the risk management process and...

Value at Risk for Gold Spot Based on Quantile-GARCH Model

Li Li, Lei Xiao
With the rapid development of gold spot market, the value at risk of gold spot took attention of market participants. Spot gold trading time series data show the peak, fat tail and clustering properties. In this paper, a new kind of Quantile-GARCH Model was introduced and used to measure the value at...

The Application of Gray Model and BP Artificial Neural Network in Predicting Drought in the Liaoning Province

Xiaojing Liu, Yongpeng Song, Donglai Ma, Peng Chen
Precipitation prediction is the core of a regional drought prediction. Due to the great randomness and uncertainty in the precipitation process, this study combined the grey model and BP artificial neural network. The residual errors of precipitation were modified by the BP artificial neural network...

Study of Handan's Urban Waterlog Risk Problem Based on Two-dimensional Information Diffusion Model

Shujun Guo, Fanlei Zeng, Ga Wang, Gongwen Zhang, Jianwei Liu, Hongfeng Wang, Wei Sun
this paper studied urban road waterlog risk problem of Handan based on the two-dimensional information diffusion model, fist to collected original data including distribution of waterlog spots, raining strength, waterlog history, danger sources and risk bearing objects with the joint of meteorology department,...