Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response

+ Advanced search
288 articles
Editorial

Editor’s Introduction

Chongfu Huang, Junxiang Zhang
Pages: 65 - 65
Research Article

The Combustible Materials Remote Sensing Ration Calculation and Fire Risk Dynamic

Zhuo Yi, Liu Guixiang, Fengming Yu
Pages: 65 - 74
The amount of combustible material is the primary factor which influences the occurrence and developing of fire. From analyzing the field survey data during the six months of the whole seasons of withered grass in Xilinguole, we obtained the different types grassland dynamic changing rates, which include...
Research Article

The Assessment of Risk Caused by Fire and Explosion in Chemical Process Industry: A Domino Effect-Based Study

Farid Kadri, Eric Chatelet, Patrick Lallement
Pages: 66 - 76
In the field of risks analysis, the domino effect has been documented in technical literature since 1947. The accidents caused by the domino effect are the most destructive accidents related to industrial plants. Fire and explosion are among the most frequent primary accidents for a domino effect due...
Research Article

Research of City Rainstorm Waterlogging Scene Simulation -- in Daoli District of Harbin City as an Example

Peng Chen, Jiquan Zhang, Lingfeng Zhang, Yingyue Sun
Pages: 66 - 72
As global warming urbanization process accelerated, urban waterlogging problem is increasingly serious, has become the research hotspot nowadays. City rainstorm waterlogging scene simulation is one of the important link in the research of the process in which residents shelter when city rainstorm waterlogging...
Review Article

Overview on the Developments and Applications of Hesitant Fuzzy Sets: An Uncertain Decision Making Tool

Bin Zhu, Zeshui Xu
Pages: 67 - 75
Recently, hesitant fuzzy sets perform as an emerging tool in decision making under uncertainty. This paper reviews the main relevant papers, which are published in international academic journals from 2010 to 2016, relating to the interpretations, modellings, and applications of hesitant fuzzy sets....
Research Article

Infection Waves in Pandemics and Risk Prediction: Physical Diffusion Theory and Data Comparisons

Romney B. Duffey
Pages: 67 - 74
We predict the magnitude and estimate the uncertainties of the spread, growth and maximum expected long-term infection rates that affect emergency policies and plans. For the COVID-19 and 1918 viral pandemics, large second or successive peaks, waves or plateaux of increased infections occur long after...
Research Article

Research on Risk Assessment and Regionalization of Forest and Grassland Fires

Xinghua Li, Wenjie Wu, Dibo Lv, Cunhou Zhang
Pages: 69 - 77
The hazard risk and disaster degree of damage was confirmed about the forest and grassland fire in Inner Mongolia by the occurrence rule of fires, distribution of high temperature points, characteristic of distribution of vegetation types, and the extent of road coverage. Production of risk assessment...
Research Article

A Sales Forecasting Model for the Consumer Goods with Holiday Effects

Mu Zhang, Xiao-nan Huang, Chang-bing Yang
Pages: 69 - 76
In reality, there are so-called holiday effects in the sales of many consumer goods, and their sales data have the characteristics of double trend change of time series. In view of this, by introducing the seasonal decomposition and ARIMA model, this paper proposes a sales forecasting model for the consumer...
Research Article

Construction of Dynamic Risk Maps for Large Metropolitan Areas

Evgeny S. Guryev, Lyudmila V. Poluyan, Sviatoslav A. Timashev
Pages: 72 - 76
The paper describes a methodology used for constructing dynamic risk map for a virtual large «Russian Gotham-RG» city. The risk map is the core of the safety passport (SP) for the city, as required by the Russian EMERCOM and the Russian State Agency for Industrial Safety. The SP contains extensive risk...
Research Article

A Study on Marine Vessels’ Path Optimization under Typhoon Scenarios

Li Xu, Xiaobing Hu
Pages: 72 - 81
Typhoon may cause a huge impact on the safety and costs of marine vessels on the voyage. In order to effectively solve the path optimization problem for marine vessels under typhoon scenarios, this paper proposes a hybrid algorithm integrating Genetic Algorithm (GA) with Receding Horizon Control (RHC),...
Editorial

Editor's Introduction

Chongfu Huang, Mu Zhang, Junxiang Zhang
Pages: 73 - 73
Research Article

Modeling of Municipal Drainage and Urban Channel Flooding in Coastal City in the South of China

Xiyan Ren, Demiao Yu, Yongjun Ruan, Guo Yu
Pages: 74 - 86
A numerical model has been formatted including ocean, rain drainage, urban channels, and pumps by the software MIKE FLOOD which coupling MIKE URBAN, MIKE 11 and MIKE 21. The different scenarios have been simulated. The flooding warning water level of the urban channel is low to the spring tide height,...
Research Article

Seismic Hazard Model Harmonization in Tienshan Area

Changlong Li, Mengtan Gao
Pages: 74 - 84
This paper provides a comparison between Central Asia, the Middle East hazard models and the Chinese hazard result in Tienshan Area, based on reshaped seismogenic sources, recalculated related seismicity parameters, and calibrated ground motion models. This paper concluded that in the most areas of Tienshan,...
Research Article

Towards the Development of Regional Risk Profiles and Adaptation Measures for Sea Level Rise

Bilal M. Ayyub, Michael Kearney
Pages: 75 - 89
Risks from future sea level rise entail significant uncertainties concerning overall potential impacts, the specific threats faced by particular areas and what benefit or costs are associated with strategies for addressing such risks. The proposed risk quantification and management framework is consistent...
Research Article

Using Trust Game for Cross-Strait Security Risk Analysis

Cheng-Kuang Wu, Chongfu Huang
Pages: 75 - 84
The interactions of the Mainland China offering benefits, the Taiwan benefits return, and the benefits of China-Taiwan bilateral trust between the China and Taiwan are modeled as a trust game. The trust strategy is best response for China and Taiwan if the benefit of China-Taiwan bilateral trust is increased...
Research Article

Multi-Scale Climate Change and Its Influencing Factors in Northern Shaanxi during 1960–2020

Si Wen Xue, Zhou Qi
Pages: 75 - 85
Based on the observed data of precipitation and air temperature in Northern Shaanxi during 1960–2020, the characteristics of precipitation and air temperature at multiple time scales in Northern Shaanxi were analyzed by using CEEMDAN (Adaptive Complete Set Empirical Model) and back propagation neural...
Research Article

Application of Risk Estimation of Noise-induced Hearing Loss Method in Evaluations of Occupational Disease Hazards in Construction Projects in China

Minyan Li, Deyin Huang, Qian Zhang, Mao Liu
Pages: 76 - 84
To protect the workers exposed to industrial noise, prevent and control the occurrence of noise-induced hearing loss, and reduce the incidence of occupational noise-induced deafness, a method and its application example were presented to assess the risk of noise-induced hearing loss. Based on the data...
Research Article

Health Risks of Environmental Exposure to PCDD/Fs near a Hazardous Waste Incinerator in Catalonia, Spain

Montse Mari, Jordi Díaz-Ferrero, Marta Schuhmacher, Martí Nadal, José L. Domingo
Pages: 77 - 87
In order to evaluate the environmental impact of a hazardous waste incinerator (HWI) located in Constantí (Spain), during the period 2010-2012, 30 vegetation and soil samples were alternatively (herbage in 2010 and 2012, and soils in 2011) collected in the surroundings of the facility, and their contents...
Research Article

Volatility Forecasting in Financial Risk Management with Statistical Models and ARCH-RBF Neural Networks

Dusan Marcek, Lukas Falat
Pages: 77 - 95
As volatility plays very important role in financial risk management, we investigate the volatility dynamics of EUR/GBP currency. While a number of studies examines volatility using statistical models, we also use neural network approach. We suggest the ARCH-RBF model that combines information from ARCH...
Research Article

Risk Analysis and Crisis Management of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19✩

Weixi Xu, Xuanhua Xu
Pages: 77 - 81
After the outbreak of new coronavirus pneumonia, all regions have responded to take measures. Emergency decision-making plays an important role, directly related to the safety of the people, and more deeply will affect the future of the country. In this paper, we try to use the wisdom of large groups...
Editorial

Preface

Chongfu Huang
Pages: 79 - 80
Research Article

Explanation of Risk and Uncertainty in News Coverage of an Anthrax Attack

Kristen Alley Swain
Pages: 81 - 95
A content analysis of U.S. news coverage of the 2001 anthrax attacks examined explanations of risk and uncertainty. The sample consisted of 833 stories drawn from 272 newspapers, Associated Press, National Public Radio, and four television networks (CBS, NBC, CNN, ABC). Dominant uncertainty factors included...
Research Article

Evaluation on Eco-Environmental Quality of Ordos Plateau

Ruiyan Wu, Ming Zhao, Ruiping Zhou
Pages: 82 - 87
According to “Technical Criterion for Ecosystem Status Evaluation” issued by State Environmental Protection Administration, on the basis of Arcgis platform, using the comprehensive evaluation index method, the paper takes Dongsheng district as a case, selected biological richness index, vegetation coverage...
Research Article

Research on Public Health Security Risk Management and Emergency Response Measures under Climate Change

Xing Kaicheng, Li Hongyu, Ma Guihong, Jing Yuanyuan, Yang Ming, Huang Dapeng
Pages: 82 - 90
Climate change, characterized by global warming, has a wider and deeper impact on society, economy and life. Climate change is an important cause of human health and the spread of infectious diseases. The explosiveness and uncertainty of the epidemic of infectious diseases pose a huge threat to human...
Case Study

Study on Performance Evaluation of Government Comprehensive Supervision for Safety Production Based on Balanced Score Card — A Case Study in Shandong Province, China

Hao Yu
Pages: 85 - 94
The government supervision is the key to guarantee work safety. In order to improve the level of safety production supervision of the government, a performance evaluation indicator system of safety production supervision within city and county two levels for the local government has been established...
Research Article

Geomorphology Characteristic and Tectonic Response of the Meijiang Watershed in the Southern China Represented by Hypsometric Integral

Qinghua Gong, Min Guo, Shuqing Fu
Pages: 85 - 92
MeiJiang river basin was selected as study area in this paper because it is a typical representative in the mountains of south China. Firstly, the study area was classified into several catchments in ARCGIS platform based on DEM data. Secondly, this paper withdraws the measuring indicators of the geomorphology...
Case Study

Applicability of Regional Evaluation for Rapid Assessment Models of Earthquake Disaster Life Loss – A case study of Gansu Province

Wen Li, Wenkai Chen, Hanran Zhang, Zijing Su
Pages: 85 - 92
In this paper, typical earthquake disaster life loss assessment models are applied to verify and calculate the historical earthquake cases in the Gansu Province since 1966. The assessment accuracy and applicability of various models in the Gansu Province are studied by means of actual earthquake cases....
Research Article

Study of the Role of Customs in Global Supply Chain Management and Trade Security Based on the Authorized Economic Operator System

Liwen Chen, Yongfei Ma
Pages: 87 - 92
The core aims of Authorised Economic Operator (AEO) are to establish an international corporate identity system and encourage supply chain enterprises to maintain high degrees of safety and security in their international trading. This paper conducts an in-depth study of customs management thinking regarding...
Perspective

Risk Perception Biases and the Resilience of Ethics for Complying with COVID-19-Pandemic-Related Safety Measures

Bako Rajaonah, Enrico Zio
Pages: 87 - 90
This perspective paper presents factors that bias COVID-19-related risk judgments and risk decisions, such as cognitive biases, affect heuristics, mental models of risk and trust. The goal is to gain knowledge about the difficulty of risk communication in inducing attitudinal and behavioral changes regarding...
Research Article

On the Renewal Risk Model with Constant Interest Force

K.K. Thampi, M.J. Jacob
Pages: 88 - 94
In this paper, we consider a renewal risk model with constant interest force for an insurance portfolio. We discuss equations for the survival probability and its Laplace-Stieltjes transforms have been obtained. We provide recursive algorithm for the upper and lower bounds for the ruin/survival probability...
Research Article

An Algal Specific Growth Rate Relation Model to Assess Dynamical Brown Tide Disasters

Shiyong Wen, Yongfeng Zhang, Wanlei Zhang, Zizhu Wang, Ye Tian, Yongjian Liu, Jianhua Zhao
Pages: 88 - 99
This paper considers the coupling effect of nutrient and temperature on algal growth. We propose an algal specific growth rate relation model to assess dynamical brown tide disasters caused by Aureococcus Anophagefferens. To verify the model, we processed data from coastal waters along Qinhuangdao, China,...
Research Article

Multi-hazard Awareness, Risk Perception and Fear to Earthquakes: The Case of High-school Students in Mexico City

Jaime Santos-Reyes
Pages: 91 - 96
A cross-sectional study was conducted in 2015 for the case of students at a high school in Mexico City; the sample size was N = 302. The aim of the study was to assess the level of hazard awareness, risk perception, and the negative emotion related to fear during earthquakes. Some of the main findings...
Research Article

Efficient Applications of Risk Analysis in the Chemical Industry and Emergency Response

Roberto Bubbico
Pages: 92 - 101
Despite it is now used in many technical and industrial areas, Risk Analysis is sometimes still considered by many plant managers as a methodology too complex and too timeconsuming to be of practical use. Conversely, it will be shown that Risk Analysis can often provide very useful information on the...
Research Article

GIS-based Assessment of Vulnerability to Landslide Hazards in Lushan Earthquake-stricken Areas

Mingtao Ding, Cheng Miao
Pages: 93 - 106
This paper establishes a GIS-based system of vulnerability assessment to landslide hazard for Lushan earthquake-stricken areas. By taking these areas as the study area and ArcGIS 9.3 Software as the platform; with GIS Grid Technology and adopting Contributing Weight Overlay Model, we extract 6 vulnerability...
Research Article

Capability Evaluation of Ground Support for Emergency Rescue Helicopters

Xiuyan Zhang, Ran Liu, Aiwen Yu
Pages: 93 - 100
Under the background that the demand for air emergency rescue is increasingly urgent, the ground support for helicopters’ taking off and landing safely in disaster area is studied. By defining the connotation and identifying the influencing factors, the evaluation index system is established, including...
Research Article

Evaluation on Ecological Civilization Construction Level in Guizhou Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

Xinpu Wang, Mu Zang
Pages: 93 - 100
In order to better build the ecological environment of Guizhou province, accelerate the marketization and capitalization of Guizhou province’s ecological resources, and evaluate and study the construction level of Guizhou’s ecological civilization. This paper, by using IFAHP, the establishment of intuitionistic...
Research Article

Meteorological Grading Indexes of Water–saving Irrigation for Corn

Jingjing Xiao, Zhiguo Huo, Dapeng Huang, Fenfen Guo, Yan Jiang, Gaofeng Fan, E. Youhao, Y.U. Caixia
Pages: 95 - 102
To optimize irrigation and provide a technical guide on agricultural production, the water-saving irrigation meteorological grading indexes of different development stages of maize were built in this paper, based on the principle of farmland water balance, the theories of insufficient irrigation and...
Research Article

A Study of the Impact on Soybean Potential under Climate Change

Qiuying Ding, Zhan Tian, Dongli Fan, Laixiang Sun, Guenther Fischer
Pages: 95 - 102
Soybean is one of the important oil crops in China. However the supply and demand of soybean is at stake currently. The demand keeps increasing and the self-sufficient keeps decreasing. More seriously, climate change will bring obvious impact on the growth and development, planting pattern, planting...
Research Article

Analogies in Entity Risk Mechanics

Milík Tichý
Pages: 96 - 107
Companies exposed to hazards can be paralleled to building and engineering Structures subjected to physical loads; see. Important analogies can be identified in various specific concepts, e.g., in size effect, instability, fatigue, and in many others.
Research Article

Urban Seismomorphoses Seismic Vulnerabilities, an Embarrassing Legacy

Stephane Cartier, Cloe Valette, Hafida Mediene
Pages: 96 - 106
Seismic vulnerability challenges sustainable urbanism. Antioch, Manosque and Oran, three Mediterranean cities destroyed by earthquakes, demonstrate how preservation of urban patrimony protects populations. The methodological pattern “urban seismic patrimonial strategies” cross investment and patrimonial...
Research Article

Five Supplementary Therapies for COVID-19

Li-Yuan Liu
Pages: 97 - 100
The COVID-19 is characteristic of both damage of the respiratory system and the immune system or both similarities of SARS and AIDS. These features decide difficulty of specific treatment. The worldwide transmission and higher fatality rate call for new skills for prevention and treatment. Here, we recommend...
Editorial

Editor’s Introduction

Chongfu Huang, Gordon Huang
Pages: 100 - 100
Review Article

Review and Prospect of Emergency Logistics under Uncertainty Conditions

Hanping Zhao, Chence Niu, Tingting Zhang, Sida Cai
Pages: 101 - 109
Emergency logistics is the key process of disaster relief activities. Abruptness and inaccurate prediction of disaster make emergency logistics operated under the condition of uncertainty; these uncertainties are essentially different from ones in traditional business decision. To seek the core and future...
Research Article

A Note on Nonparametric Estimation of Conditional Hazard Quantile Function

El Hadj Hamel, Nadia Kadiri, Abbes Rabhi
Pages: 101 - 107
In this paper, we study an kernel estimator of the conditional hazard quantile function (CHQF) of a scalar response variable Y given a random variable (rv) X taking values in a semi-metric space and using the proposed estimator based of the kernel smoothing method. The almost complete consistency and...
Research Article

Risk Management in Process Industry - Practical Approach in Poland

Andrzej Kozak
Pages: 102 - 105
As one of the risk analysis methods HAZOP has been successively and commonly applied for many years since it enables the future user of a process installation to check the project in terms of security in a way that minimises the costs of changes. This paper refers to the weak points of risk management...
Research Article

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Urban Vulnerability in Guangzhou

Bo Tang, Jinan Qiu, Jiaying Huang, Yuanyuan Zhang, Feipeng Qiu
Pages: 101 - 110
The evaluation of urban vulnerability is of great significance to improve the quality of urbanization. An urban vulnerability index system was developed from four aspects of population vulnerability, economic vulnerability, social vulnerability and ecological vulnerability. The Spatial and temporal patterns...
Research Article

Equity Financing Efficiency Measurement of Listed Companies in Strategic Emerging Industries based on DEA

Si-si Li, Mu Zhang
Pages: 101 - 112
Equity financing is an important part of corporate capital structure decision-making. The level of financing efficiency is of great significance to the survival and development of Listed Companies in strategic emerging industries. In order to measure the equity financing efficiency of Listed Companies...
Research Article

Decision-Making Model in the Environment of Complex Structure Data

Fusheng Yu, Shihu Liu
Pages: 103 - 109
For decision makers, the data property has a direct influence on the selection of decision making approaches and the reliability of decision results. Because of the complexity and diversity of practical decision data, some traditional decision approaches are not very good at reflecting the actual problem....
Research Article

The Analysis on the Effecting Factor of Drought Disease in Qingyang, Gansu

Xiaodong Wang
Pages: 103 - 108
In recent years, the global climate is becoming warmer and warmer. The discussion about the global warming effecting on is also more and more intensified. The paper analyzes change of air temperature and precipitation change occurred from last half century to the beginning of this century in the Qingyang...
Research Article

The Errors Estimate of the Multistage Combined Investment Risk Assessment

Yu Jike, Zhou Zongfang
Pages: 106 - 109
Investment risk is economic development faced serious risk. The multistage combination investment risk assessment (MCIRA) can reduce the assessment error, but how to survey the error which produces by the MCIRA models, has the important significance. From theoretical side, the errors upper-bound of the...
Research Article

Pluvial Flooding Risk Analysis and the Solutions to Risk Mitigation for Dangyang City in China

Yuhong Li, Lian Shi, Jiazhuo Wang, Yingjun Hu, Jin Fan
Pages: 107 - 119
This paper introduces Urban Storm Water Drainage and Localized Pluvial Flooding Mitigation Planning of Dangyang City of Hubei Province in China. With the help of ARCGIS, MIKE FLOOD and other software, we found that the two main courses of pluvial flooding in Dangyang city are the flash floods around...
Research Article

Entity Risk Mechanics

Milik Tichy
Pages: 107 - 114
The actual theory of risk is based on phenomenological approach. However, it seems feasible to start thinking about Entities exposed to hazards in a similar way as about structural systems exposed to loads. Concepts of structural mechanics and structural reliability, common in design of constructed facilities,...
Research Article

Parts of Speech of AnQuan

Ming Xu, Zongzhi Wu, Yun Luo
Pages: 108 - 112
Researches on connotation of AnQuan were research hot spots in safety discipline field and the starting points of development of the discipline. The presupposition that AnQuan is noun was the foundation of those studies. But is this hypothesis really exists? In this paper, research has shown that the...
Research Article

Maximum Entropy-Based Model of High-Threat Landslide Disaster Distribution in Zhaoqing, China

Shaoxiong Yuan, Guangqing Huang, Haixian Xiong, Qinghua Gong, Jun Wang, Jun Chen
Pages: 108 - 126
Landslide disaster that threatened over 100 people in Zhaoqing, China, were taken as samples. Sixteen environmental factors were selected, including altitude, slope degree, slope aspect, lithology, soil texture, normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI), average annual rainfall, distance to developed...
Editorial

Editor’s Introduction

Chongfu Huang, Mu Zhang, Junxiang Zhang
Pages: 109 - 109
Research Article

Research on Characteristics and Formation Mechanism of Landslide Disaster in Red Soil Hilly Region of South China

Qinghua Gong, Guangqing Huang, Junxiang Zhang
Pages: 110 - 114
The mechanism of landslide hazard in weathering crust of granites in south china was chosen as our research object. Landslides, as a common geo-hazard, can result in huge economic losses and enormous casualties in mountainous regions of the world. Therefore, the mechanism of landslide hazard has become...
Review Article

Identifying Crisis Threats: A Partial Synthesis of the Literature on Crisis Threat Assessment with Relevance to Public Administrations

Christian Kalbassi
Pages: 110 - 121
The crisis management literature offers a host of theoretical treatises that are relevant to crisis threat assessment in public administrations; however, these insights remain non-cumulative, non-consolidated, and unstructured in a field of individual contributions. Using existing literature regarding...
Research Article

Internet of Intelligences in Risk Analysis for Online Services

Chongfu Huang
Pages: 110 - 117
There are always some people who experienced or studied the risks of daily life. Based on that, in this paper, we proposed a new concept Internet of intelligences (IOI), which consists of intelligent agents, the Internet and a mathematics model. An IOI collects and processes the information provided...
Research Article

Research on Promoting Effect of Tourism Industry Development on Tourism Poverty Alleviation in Guizhou

Siqi Li, Mu Zhang, Xinpu Wang
Pages: 110 - 119
The traffic in the counties of Guizhou is inconvenient and the economic location is remote. How to transform the characteristics of natural resources and national cultural resources into economic advantages? This is the key of this paper. In this paper, the tourism industry of 50 poverty-stricken counties...
Review Article

Summary of Researches on Basis Risk in Weather Index Insurance

Yueqin Wang, Sijian Zhao
Pages: 111 - 122
Agricultural weather index insurance overcomes the technology and management problems existing in traditional agricultural insurance, and can effectively transfer agricultural meteorological disasters risk, providing strong guarantee for farmers with small production scale and scattered land. Although...
Research Article

Emerging Risks: Methodology, Classification and Policy Implications

Ortwin Renn
Pages: 114 - 132
Good risk governance seems to rest on the three components: knowledge, legally prescribed procedures and social values. All three components are of particular importance for assessing and managing emerging risks, which are characterized by a lack of knowledge about the likelihood and magnitude of potential...
Research Article

Anchor-based Goals and Personality Effects on Hazard Identification in Risk Assessment

Piers Fleming, Harry England
Pages: 113 - 118
Hazard identification is a crucial first step in risk assessment. There are many cases in which hazard identification is carried out by non-experts. One concern is that valid hazards are overlooked and so not considered for mitigation or prevention. This study examined whether a goal-setting anchor could...
Research Article

Risk Analysis Techniques in Construction Engineering Projects

Daniel Baloi
Pages: 115 - 123
There is a great deal of risk analysis techniques and tools available for the management of risks. In principle, each risk analysis technique has its strengths and weaknesses. Techniques such as Probability Theory, Certainty Factors, Dempster-Shaffer Theory of Evidence and Fuzzy Logic are discussed with...
Research Article

Risk Assessment for a Chemical Spill into a River

James B. Williams, David McReady
Pages: 116 - 126
A chemical spill into a river presents a significant threat to human health and the aquatic environment. A mathematical model is presented for predicting the chemical concentrations in a river resulting from a chemical spill. A screening risk assessment approach is presented to characterize the risk...
Research Article

A Study on Food Safety Risk Analysis under the Condition of Traditional Agriculture

Jingyuan Yin, Haiyan Gao, Wei Pei
Pages: 118 - 125
With the development of economy, the problem of food safety has caused extensive concern. Agricultural production node is on the front of the food safety management chain. The combination of which and modern economic social development is an important character to reflect the food safety situation in...
Case Study

Utilization of Flood Simulation Technique in Urban Flood Warning - A Case Study on Fuzhou

Shuaijie Li, Yingxia Xie, Xiaotao Cheng, Zhifen Chen
Pages: 120 - 128
Vulnerability of urban receptors in flood prevention is rising during the rapid urbanization, and emergency response strategies were introduced to strengthen the capacity of urban flood prevention and flood disaster response. Emergency plan for flood control, which is considered as one of the most important...
Research Article

Simulation Study on Evolutionary Game Model between Technological Small and Medium Enterprises and Banks under Verification System

Huafeng Chen, Mu Zhang, Junmeng Lu
Pages: 120 - 128
On the basis of evolutionary game theory, this paper adds risk compensation funds and establishes an evolutionary game model for Technological Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and bank loans under the verification mechanism. And the stability analysis and simulation study of the game results of the...
Research Article

Connection Parameters of Heavy-tailed Operational Risk Measurement Model and Management Model

Meiling He, Shutao Qing, Jianming Mo, Xiang Gao
Pages: 122 - 134
In order to connect the heavy-tailed operational risk measurement model with management model, a model identifying the crucial supervising parameters of operational risk is built after the heavy-tailed operational VaR’s sensitivity is theoretically researched by the elasticity analysis method. Further,...
Research Article

Game Theoretic Strategies for Supplier Capability Assessment and Manufacturing Order Allocation

Cheng-Kuang Wu, Yu-Min Chuang
Pages: 121 - 129
An effective method is required to determine the amount and priority for the deployment of suppliers for multiple manufacturing processes, particularly when the available budget for each manufacturing process is limited. In this study, we propose an integrated approach for supplier assessment that consists...
Research Article

The Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment Based on the Diffusion Mechanism

Shujun Guo
Pages: 124 - 130
At present, the study on meteorological disasters risk is mostly for single hazard-affected body. With the economic and social development in recent years, meteorological disaster risk is appearing with more "system" characteristics. Meteorological disasters not only impact on direct hazard-affected...
Research Article

Re-examining Political Risk Assessments in Volatile Regions

Ghaidaa Hetou
Pages: 123 - 127
Conventional country risk and political risk indexes, to formalize the process, have attempted to standardize and generalize assessment models for factors that are highly context specific. Hence, the value derived from traditional political risk indexes lack precision and are therefore less reliable....
Research Article

Dynamics of Urban Fire Correlations with Detrended Fluctuation Analysis

Jinghong Wang
Pages: 126 - 132
To explore and understand the intrinsic dynamic mechanisms of urban fire system is an important prerequisite for the fire risk analysis and management. By analyzing the time series of urban fire system, it is helpful to achieve this goal. In this paper, the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is applied...
Research Article

The Volatility of Market Risk In Viet Nam Listed Banking, Insurance and Financial Services Company Groups after the Financial Crisis 2009-2011

Dinh Tran Ngoc Huy
Pages: 127 - 134
The Viet Nam economy, especially the stock exchange, has been influenced by the global crisis during and after the period 2007-2009. How much risk for a typical industry in an emerging market such as Viet Nam? For specific industries, such as banking, insurance, investment and security industries, the...
Research Article

Major Element Geochemistry of LongShan Loess Profile in the Central Shandong Mountainous regions, Northern China

Min Ding, Shuzhen Peng, Longjiang Mao, Wei Zhang, Qiuyue Zhao
Pages: 127 - 136
valleys of mountainous regions in central Shandong Province in northern China, have been systematically tested and been compared with the YHC loess in the Loess Plateau to reveal the geochemical characteristics and material sources of LS loess. It is found that the average chemical composition of Shandong...
Editorial

Editor's Introduction

Chongfu Huang, Gordon Huang
Pages: 129 - 130
Research Article

Disaster Risk Research Literature on Statistics Analysis in China Journal Net

Shuzhen Li, Alateng Tuya
Pages: 129 - 140
Disaster risk literature collect from CNKI, analysis of the development of china journal net’s literature on disaster risk. According to the literature was published in the year, subject, author, literature sources, databases, was cited and downloaded several aspects, such as for quantitative analysis....
Research Article

A Critique of Pandemic Catastrophe Modeling

Daniel J. Rozell
Pages: 128 - 133
Catastrophe modeling is a popular risk assessment tool for the insurance industry and has been applied to a variety of natural disaster events. More recently, catastrophe modeling techniques have been extended to events, such as pandemics, where the range of possible scenarios is less understood due...
Research Article

A Credit Rating Model for Enterprises Based on Projection Pursuit and K-Means Clustering Algorithm

Mu Zhang, Zongfang Zhou
Pages: 131 - 138
This paper proposes a new credit rating model for enterprises based on the Projection Pursuit and K-means clustering algorithm. Firstly, using Projection Pursuit, the comprehensive credit score of each sample is obtained, so as to reflect the structure or characteristics of original multi-dimensional...
Research Article

Assessing the Influence of Environmental Factors on Spatial Soil Erosion Risk based on the Certainty Coefficient Method

Jun Wang, Qinghua Gong, Yan Yu
Pages: 131 - 141
Soil erosion is a very serious ecological problem and remains a highly contentious issue in Nanling National Nature Reserve, China. This paper assessed the spatial relationships between soil erosion risk and the environmental factors affecting soil erosion. Such research is significant for monitoring...
Research Article

Influencing Factors of Equity Financing Efficiency of the Listed Companies in Strategic Emerging Industry Based on Baidu Index

Zhi-yuan Lü, Mu Zhang
Pages: 130 - 137
In order to further improve the equity financing efficiency of listed companies in strategic emerging industries, this paper selects relevant data of 208 listed companies in strategic emerging industries from 2014 to 2018, and calculates the changes in scale efficiency, pure technical efficiency and...
Research Article

TIEMS DREVS Initiative: Disaster Resilience Establishment for Vulnerable Societies

K. Harald Drager, Thomas V. Robertson
Pages: 133 - 140
Due to changing climate, population growth, and other factors the loss of life and damage to physical property has increased significantly in developing countries. The effects of these disasters can cause long term impacts on productivity and growth throughout the world. Although it is in the international...
Research Article

The Research of a Hail Risk Evaluation under Imperfect Information

Wang Wei, Zhou Chao, Du Xin
Pages: 133 - 141
Based on the situation of the global warming, hail disasters will maybe cause the higher risk of loss in the future. The author established a risk evaluation model of hail disasters in terms of the combination of probabilistic and physical methods. Moreover, a nonlinear finite element analysis software...
Research Article

Route Guidance Map for Emergency Evacuation

Lakshay, Amit Agarwal, Nomesh B. Bolia
Pages: 135 - 144
An efficient process of emergency evacuation must be guided. In the event of an evacuation instruction, a significant amount of time is spent by evacuees looking for a place of relative safety or an exit. Due to the ensuing stress and confusion evacuees try to follow others, consequently, all the exits...
Research Article

MCSim-Based Occupational Health Risk Assessment on Benzene

Minyan Li, Deyin Huang, Mao Liu
Pages: 135 - 145
Nowadays, the acute and chronic adverse health effects caused by benzene exposure have attracted wide attention. In this paper, we evaluate the health risk based on the four-step method recommended by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). We present a method using the Monte Carlo Simulating Software...
Research Article

A Game Theory Approach for Multi-agent System Resources Allocation against Outside Threats

Cheng-Kuang Wu, Xingwei Hu
Pages: 134 - 144
This study proposes an integrated model for the deployment of multiagent resources for resisting outside threats. The proposed two-stage model applies the divide-and-conquer strategy to solve the resources allocation problem. First, the interactive actions between an external attack and a response agent...
Research Article

Time Limit of the Probabilistic Risk for Natural Disaster

Jun Guo, Chongfu Huang
Pages: 137 - 145
Since natural disaster risk is a feature of the future and is also dynamic, the result of probabilistic risk analysis for natural disaster has its own time limit. Considering that risk is for the future and meanwhile dynamic, the result of probabilistic risk analysis in natural disaster could just represent...
Research Article

The Nature Event's Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Nuclear Power Plants with Improvements

Yan Chen, Chunming Zhang, Jianshe Chai
Pages: 139 - 145
Probabilistic risk assessment is the systematic and comprehensive methodology to evaluate the risk of nuclear power plants. Currently some aspects, which are the hazard analysis and fragility evaluation in the probabilistic risk assessment of natural events in nuclear power plants need to be improved....
Research Article

Research on the Management Capability Measurement of GEM Listed Companies based on DEA Tobit Model

Feng Xia, Zhang Mu
Pages: 138 - 146
With the rise of the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM), more and more investors have begun to pay attention to it and begin to consider investing in related listed companies. Therefore, the healthy and stable development of the GEM is of great significance to investors. The management of the company is...
Case Study

Identification of Global Indicators for Regulatory Risk Management in Production Platforms - Case Study of Brazilian Industry

Alex Garcia de Almeida, Marco Antonio Gaya de Figueiredo
Pages: 141 - 150
This study aims to analyze different indicator’s programs from regulators and other organizations, select and apply methods to normalize and compose global indicator. Using obtained information related to risk management system and incidents from 67 oil and gas production platforms in Brazil, the results...
Editorial

Editor’s Introduction

Chongfu Huang, Mu Zhang, Junxiang Zhang
Pages: 141 - 141
Research Article

Dealing with Emergencies: The Case of a Heavy Disruption of the Mexico City Metro System

Diego Padilla-Pérez, Jaime Santos-Reyes, Samuel Olmos-Peña
Pages: 142 - 151
The paper presents the results of a forecasting model associated with the affluence of users of the metro line-B of Mexico City's metro system. It also presents in a way a retrospective analysis of the metro incident that occurred on September, 2011, in the same metro line; the incident affected seven...
Research Article

Research on Model for Evaluating Risks of Venture Capital Projects

Yunfei Li, Zongfang Zhou
Pages: 142 - 148
An index system for evaluating the risks of venture capital projects is established on the basis of analyzing the factors affecting the risks of venture capital projects. A model for evaluating the risk degree of single venture capital project is presented by applying the uncertain type analysis of hierarchy...
Research Article

Research on the SME’s Collateral Credit Rationing under Loan Risk Compensation Mechanism

Changbing Yang, Mu Zhang, Junmeng Lu
Pages: 142 - 150
This paper discusses the function of loan risk compensation in the collateral credit rationing model. According to the derivation of my model, we find when the bank have some requirements on interest and collateral, at the same time, we add the loan risk subsidy variable into the above model, loan risk...
Research Article

Spatial Inequality Analysis of Fire Risk in China

Guohui Li, Lizeng Zhao, Weiping Han, Ying Wang
Pages: 145 - 155
Gini coefficient and Lorenz curve are increasingly used to examine the inequality of wealth, income, economy, and health. The objective of the current study is to introduce Gini coefficient and Lorenz curve, coefficient of variation (CV), and spatial equilibrium index (SEI) to explore the spatial inequality...
Research Article

On the coastal erosion risk assessment indexes

Lifen Xu, Shiyong Wen, Dongzhi Zhao, Xuegong Xu
Pages: 146 - 155
China is one of the most severely affected countries by coastal erosion. About 70% of the sandy beaches and most of muddy tidal flat in open water regions are erode. Coastal erosion results in the width of beach being narrowed, bathing beach destruction, coast-protection facilities and roads collapse,...
Research Article

A Risk-Benefit Analysis Model for Project Investment Based on the Normal Distribution

Liwen Chen
Pages: 146 - 154
Normal distribution formula is very important to analyze the reciprocity between the random event probability and the events. There exists certain kind of reciprocity between random variable that conforms to normal distribution and its parameter. Solutions to apply normal distribution to the evaluation...