Risk Analysis Method for Flood Control Operation of Cascade Reservoirs Considering Prediction Error

DOI

10.2991/icsd-17.2017.5How to use a DOI?

Keywords

Prediction error, Cascade reservoirs, Flood control, Risk analysis.

Abstract

Due to the existence of runoff randomness, flood control operation of cascade reservoirs faces certain risk. In this paper, risk evaluation's index system for the objectives of cascade reservoirs is established. And based on the normal quantization of accidental error in flood prediction, a flood stochastic simulation method is proposed within the allowable standard deviation. Through the classification of flood frequency, a risk analysis for flood control model and its solving method with Monte Carlo and maximum entropy theory were also constructed. By analyzing the joint flood operation of Three Gorges and Xiluodu, it shows that the method and model is reasonable, feasible and has a certain degree of adaptability. Especially it can estimate the threshold of flood forecast error standard deviation according to its own downstream capacity of flood diversion area and decision-makers' preferences, and provide an important basis for the scheduling decision.

Copyright

© 2017, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Yan-Ke Zhang
AU  - Jin-Jun You
AU  - Chang-Ming Ji
AU  - Ya-Wei Zhao
PY  - 2017/07
DA  - 2017/07
TI  - Risk Analysis Method for Flood Control Operation of Cascade Reservoirs Considering Prediction Error
BT  - Proceedings of the 3rd 2017 International Conference on Sustainable Development (ICSD 2017)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 30
EP  - 37
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/icsd-17.2017.5
DO  - 10.2991/icsd-17.2017.5
ID  - Zhang2017/07
ER  -